A new poll shows the Greens in Baden-Württemberg just one percentage point behind the CDU. The Greens poll at 27 percent, the CDU at 28 percent, days before the state election on March 8. The Greens' rise is linked to controversy over an old video of CDU candidate Manuel Hagel.
The state election in Baden-Württemberg on March 8 promises a tight race for the position of minister-president. According to a poll by Infratest dimap for ARD conducted from February 23 to 25, the Greens with top candidate Cem Özdemir stand at 27 percent, just one percentage point behind the CDU with candidate Manuel Hagel. Compared to the late January poll, when the Greens were at 23 percent and the CDU at 29 percent, the Greens have gained significantly. In October, the gap was even nine percentage points.
Other parties are losing ground: The AfD drops to 18 percent (down two points from January), The Left to 5.5 percent (from 7 percent) and is fighting for entry into the state parliament. The FDP rises to 6 percent (from 5 percent) and would narrowly enter parliament, while the SPD falls to 7 percent (down one point). For reference: In the 2021 election, the Greens received 32.6 percent, the CDU 24.1 percent, the SPD 11 percent, the FDP 10.5 percent, and the AfD 9.7 percent.
The Greens' polling boost coincides with the debate over a 2018 video of Hagel. In it, he describes a school visit: "In the class, 80 percent were girls back then. So there are worse appointments for 29-year-old parliamentarians than this one." He mentions a student: "I'll never forget it, the first question, her name was Eva, brown hair, doe-brown eyes." Hagel admitted: "The introduction to this 2018 interview was crap. My wife washed my head right away."
Greens state leaders Lena Schwelling and Pascal Haggenmüller commented: "Ten days before the election, it's clear: People want Cem Özdemir as minister-president. Only he has the experience needed in these uncertain times." Incumbent Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) is not running after three terms and currently leads a green-black coalition. Successor candidates are Hagel, Özdemir, and AfD leader Markus Frohnmaier, who has no coalition prospects.
The poll surveyed 1,530 eligible voters with a margin of error of two to three percentage points. Election polls are inherently uncertain.
