Krisis gas India dorong saham pupuk di tengah konflik Timur Tengah

Saat ketegangan Timur Tengah mengganggu pasokan gas ke India, menyebabkan kekurangan LPG dan kenaikan harga, Peraturan Pengaturan Gas Alam Pemerintah, 2026, memprioritaskan alokasi untuk sektor esensial seperti pupuk pada 70% dari konsumsi rata-rata. Hal ini memicu lonjakan saham pupuk, dengan kenaikan hingga 17%.

Gangguan dari konflik Timur Tengah, termasuk risiko terhadap rute kunci seperti Selat Hormuz, menyebabkan kekurangan gas di kota-kota India dan kenaikan tajam harga LPG domestik dan komersial. Industri seperti pupuk, restoran, dan manufaktur menghadapi kendala yang semakin ketat. Peraturan Pengaturan Gas Alam Pemerintah India, 2026, merespons dengan memprioritaskan gas untuk sektor krusial. Pabrik pupuk akan menerima 70% dari konsumsi rata-rata mereka untuk mempertahankan produksi amonia dan urea di tengah pasokan LNG yang tidak pasti. Pasar bereaksi positif: Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) dan Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore (FACT) melonjak hingga 17%, sementara Coromandel International, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals, dan Paradeep Phosphates juga mencatat kenaikan kuat. Peraturan tersebut dipandang sebagai pengaman produksi pupuk, yang vital bagi pertanian. Intervensi ini menggarisbawahi paparan India terhadap guncangan energi global, dengan langkah-langkah lebih lanjut mungkin diambil seiring berkembangnya krisis.

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Indian crowds queue for scarce LPG cylinders amid crisis from Iran conflict, with closed hotels and government priority signs.
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Iran conflict deepens LPG crisis: Government escalates with Essential Commodities Act

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Building on March 5 directive to refineries, the government invoked the Essential Commodities Act on March 10, 2026, amid worsening LPG shortages from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Commercial supplies have halted, severely impacting hotels, restaurants, and crematoriums across India, while prioritizing domestic use.

As the Iran-Israel war enters its third week, India faces acute liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shortages, prompting hoarding crackdowns and panic buying. Government officials assure sufficient stocks, but reports from various states highlight supply chain disruptions. Brent crude prices have surged to $103.14 per barrel, intensifying the crisis.

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The Centre has raised commercial LPG allocation to states and union territories to 70% of pre-crisis levels, prioritising steel, automobiles, textiles and chemicals industries. The move comes amid supply disruptions from the West Asia war's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, enabled by higher domestic production and imports from outside the region.

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Global fertilizer prices are up 22.57% since before the Middle East war began on February 28—building on an initial 7.5% rise through early March—according to Bloomberg's Green Markets index. The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts 45% of world fertilizer trade. Colombia's farmers face escalating costs, prompting a government subsidy.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, have triggered a slide in Asian shares and a surge in oil prices. Investors are turning to the US dollar for safety amid fears of prolonged energy cost increases and inflation. While emerging markets face short-term losses, experts see long-term resilience.

 

 

 

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