In a recent interview, Jeffrey Ding, assistant professor at George Washington University, argues that the true competition in the US-China AI race lies in diffusing AI throughout economies over decades, rather than racing to invent artificial general intelligence (AGI). He critiques US policies and emphasizes the key role of human capital.
Jeffrey Ding is an assistant professor of political science at George Washington University. He is the author of the award-winning book Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, which explores the impact of technology on geopolitical competition, and the founder of the ChinAI newsletter, tracking developments in China’s artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Ding explains why “diffusion”, not innovation, will determine whether China or the US prevails in the AI race. He recently wrote an article for the influential US think tank Rand Corporation, arguing that the US is “training for the wrong race” in AI.
Ding states: “The main reason I wrote that piece was to clarify what I see as a lot of confusion out there about what the US and China are actually competing for in AI.” He puts forth that the US should optimize for a “diffusion marathon” rather than a sprint towards a clear finish line. The “diffusion marathon” refers to the progress the two countries make in spreading AI throughout their respective economies.
This contrasts with the view of many in US national security circles of the AI race as an “innovation sprint”, where the key question is which country can innovate its way to developing an artificial general intelligence (AGI) with “God-like powers”, in the words of Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser under the Joe Biden administration.
Ding also addresses the Trump administration’s “counterproductive” policies around the technology, misconceptions about the two countries’ respective strengths in the field, and why human capital is the key to victory. Keywords include OpenAI, AGI, China, AI safety, AI diffusion, US, DeepSeek, Trump administration, Rand Corporation, Meta, AI race.
The interview, published on January 26, 2026, stresses that embedding AI in an economy over decades will determine the winner of the US-China tech war.
