A Forsa poll reveals that 76 percent of Germans view a lottery system for selecting conscripts as unfair. Opinions are mixed even among potentially affected young men. The debate is straining the coalition.
According to a Forsa poll commissioned by the magazine stern, 76 percent of respondents consider a lottery system for selecting military conscripts unfair. Only 21 percent see it as fair, with three percent offering no opinion. Opposition is strong across all age groups and parties: 65 percent among Union voters, 75 percent among SPD supporters, 78 percent among Left party followers, 81 percent among Greens, and 84 percent among AfD voters.
Young men aged 18 to 29, who could be directly affected, show more support, with 34 percent viewing the lottery as fair. The survey was conducted on October 16 and 17, 2025, with 1,000 participants.
The political context: Recently, the Union and SPD parliamentary groups agreed on key points for a military service law in case insufficient volunteers are found for expanding the Bundeswehr. This included a lottery proposed by the Union. However, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) rejected it, emphasizing voluntariness and a comprehensive muster of all young men to ensure troop readiness. The Union doubts that voluntariness alone will suffice and demands clear recruitment targets with fallback mechanisms.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) expressed annoyance over the coalition dispute: "Such a thing must not happen again," he said after a CDU retreat. "This conflict overshadows what the federal government has rightly put in motion in recent months."
Criticism of the lottery also comes from experts. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), chair of the defense committee in the European Parliament, warned: "Germany must not be defended by chance." Former parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces Reinhold Robbe cautioned that randomly selected recruits might feel like losers.