New study forecasts heat-related deaths a week in advance
Researchers at Uppsala University have developed a forecasting system that can predict heat-related deaths in Europe a week in advance. The system combines meteorological data with health statistics for more accurate warnings. Over 100,000 people died from extreme heat in Europe during the summers of 2022 and 2023.
A new study from Uppsala University shows that it is possible to predict deaths related to heatwaves in Europe up to a week in advance. Researchers have developed a forecasting system that has been tested and shown to work well, according to a university press release published on October 7, 2025.
Previous warning systems have mainly been based on temperatures, but the new system considers both meteorological data and health statistics. "Our forecasting system takes into account both meteorological data and health statistics, which allows us to more accurately predict how heat can affect deaths," says Emma Holmberg, a meteorology researcher at Uppsala University, in the press release.
The forecasts could be crucial for issuing early warnings and implementing necessary interventions in time. "By including heat-related mortality in heat warnings, authorities can focus resources where they are needed and target the elderly, the sick, or other vulnerable groups," Holmberg adds.
The background is grim: Over 100,000 people in Europe are estimated to have died due to extreme heat during the summers of 2022 and 2023. The system was developed in Uppsala and aims to improve preparedness for future heatwaves.