Small business owners anticipate fallout from Middle East conflict

A new Ifop-Fiducial survey shows 82 percent of very small business leaders are concerned about the impact of the war in Iran and other global crises on their operations.

Two months after the start of the war in Iran, direct effects remain limited for French very small businesses. Yet concern runs high: 82 percent of surveyed leaders anticipate negative repercussions from the Middle East conflict, the war in Ukraine, and US trade policy.

The Ifop-Fiducial barometer published on May 11, 2026, finds that 90 percent of directors have not hired since the start of the year. Concrete impacts are not yet visible, but caution prevails.

“They are trying to do their best and adapt,” the survey headline states. Small business owners seek to limit risks without making major changes to their plans.

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Indonesian businesspeople in Jakarta react with concern to rising oil prices and inflation risks from the Iran-Israel conflict fallout, as monitored by Bank Indonesia.
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Pengusaha Indonesia siapkan mitigasi dampak konflik Iran-Israel

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Konflik antara Iran, Israel, dan Amerika Serikat yang memanas sejak akhir Februari 2026 memicu kenaikan harga minyak dan emas dunia, mendorong pengusaha Indonesia menyiapkan langkah mitigasi risiko jangka pendek. Bank Indonesia waspada terhadap potensi inflasi akibat biaya transportasi dan produksi yang melonjak. Pasar saham Asia turun, sementara investor beralih ke aset aman seperti emas.

One month after initial reports of plummeting bookings amid the 2026 Middle East War, French travelers continue delaying summer vacations—even domestic trips—due to the Iran conflict since February 28. Industry leaders report adaptations like destination swaps amid rising fares and cancellation fears.

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Following TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné's stark warning of impending energy shortages, other French business leaders like LVMH's Bernard Arnault and Saint-Gobain's Benoit Bazin express growing alarm over the economic fallout from two months of US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. President Macron seeks to reassure, but concerns mount.

According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the escalation of tensions in Iran is disrupting air transport and tourist flows in the Middle East, leading to losses of at least 600 million dollars per day in international visitor spending. Major regional hubs are facing temporary closures and restrictions, weakening global connectivity. Despite these effects, the sector remains resilient and can recover quickly with appropriate support.

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The Iran war endangers the growth of German premium carmakers in the Middle East region. While sales stagnate elsewhere, BMW, Porsche, and Mercedes thrive with luxury models in the Gulf states. Supply chains remain resilient despite the escalation, as research indicates.

Amid ongoing disruptions from the Middle East war that began February 28, 2026—including over 37,000 flight cancellations and airline recoveries—French travel bookings have plummeted and airfares risen due to oil price surges. Agencies urge suspending trips to nine Persian Gulf nations until March 31, while Air France and KLM impose 50-euro long-haul surcharges.

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Young Iranians in Hong Kong are enduring anxious days and sleepless nights, waiting helplessly for news from loved ones amid a flood of contradictory reports on the Middle East conflict. Biomedical researcher Behzad Nasiri Ahmadabadi and student Ali* describe their powerlessness over events thousands of kilometres away.

 

 

 

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