Iran war drives up mortgage rates in France

Most French banks are raising their mortgage rates for April amid uncertainty from the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. French 10-year state bond yields hit nearly 3.90% on Friday, a level unseen since 2009. Philippe Crevel of the Cercle de l’Épargne highlights the close link between these yields and home loan rates.

The war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are not only raising fuel prices but also French mortgage rates. Several banks have announced increases to their April rate sheets, averaging 0.10 percentage point and up to 0.30 point for one lender.

On Friday, the French 10-year OAT yield climbed to nearly 3.90%, a high last seen during the 2009 subprime crisis. This rise in long-term rates directly affects consumer loans. “The two are extremely linked,” said Philippe Crevel, director of the Cercle de l’Épargne.

Banks are adjusting their offerings amid economic and political uncertainty. This uptick complicates home-buying plans for French households, as lenders typically release rate sheets in a staggered manner.

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Illustration of Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade during war, driving up global oil and gas prices and threatening Europe's energy supply.
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War in Iran causes surge in energy prices

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On the fifth day of the war in Iran, Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil and gas prices, affecting the global economy. European gas prices rose from 32 to 49 euros per MWh, while Brent crude climbed from 72 to 82 dollars per barrel. Europe, vulnerable due to its reliance on imports, faces heightened risks if the conflict drags on.

The US-Israel war in Iran is driving up construction material costs in Spain due to surging energy prices, prompting developers to anticipate higher new home prices. Experts forecast additional increases of 2 to 5 percentage points, depending on the conflict's duration. This adds to the 11.3% rise seen in 2025.

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Mortgage rates for ten-year loans in Germany have reached their highest level in over two years, averaging 3.85 percent. This rise is linked to increasing yields on federal bonds, which recently stood at 2.87 percent. Experts forecast a further moderate upward trend in 2026.

Banks' overall loan rates edged down in October amid the central bank's monetary easing, though mortgage rates climbed due to tighter lending regulations. Corporate loan rates fell for the fifth straight month, while household rates rose for the first time since December 2024. The changes reflect efforts to cool the overheated property market and curb household debt.

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As the US-Israeli war with Iran enters its second week, oil prices have surged to $104-$120 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz blockades, intensifying inflation and fuel cost fears in South Africa. With the rand at R16.90/$, analysts predict petrol above R23/litre and potential SARB rate hikes.

Konflik yang sedang berlangsung dengan Iran telah menghentikan pengiriman di Selat Hormuz, mendorong kenaikan harga minyak dan gas global. Lonjakan ini memberikan keuntungan jangka pendek bagi produsen di luar wilayah Teluk Persia, seperti Exxon Mobil dan Chevron. Konsumen di AS dan Eropa menghadapi tagihan yang lebih tinggi sebagai akibatnya.

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Following initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, weekend attacks reportedly killed Ayatollah Ali Jamenei, prompting Iran's Revolutionary Guard to threaten closing the Strait of Hormuz. Mexico's export mix hit $66.63 per barrel on March 2—the highest in seven months—as global markets reacted with risk aversion; Mexico activated a gasoline price contingency plan.

 

 

 

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