Iran war drives up mortgage rates in France

Most French banks are raising their mortgage rates for April amid uncertainty from the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. French 10-year state bond yields hit nearly 3.90% on Friday, a level unseen since 2009. Philippe Crevel of the Cercle de l’Épargne highlights the close link between these yields and home loan rates.

The war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are not only raising fuel prices but also French mortgage rates. Several banks have announced increases to their April rate sheets, averaging 0.10 percentage point and up to 0.30 point for one lender.

On Friday, the French 10-year OAT yield climbed to nearly 3.90%, a high last seen during the 2009 subprime crisis. This rise in long-term rates directly affects consumer loans. “The two are extremely linked,” said Philippe Crevel, director of the Cercle de l’Épargne.

Banks are adjusting their offerings amid economic and political uncertainty. This uptick complicates home-buying plans for French households, as lenders typically release rate sheets in a staggered manner.

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A crowded French gas station with long lines of cars and a prominent fuel price sign showing record highs due to the Middle East crisis.
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Fuel prices hit new high in France amid Middle East crisis

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Gasoline prices reached their highest level since the start of the Middle East conflict on Wednesday, May 6. The average price of super unleaded 95 stood at 2.03 euros per liter. The increase stems from the war and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz.

Global financial markets reacted on Monday to renewed surges in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing the economic ripple effects first seen after the Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade earlier this year.

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日本銀行は4月28日、基準金利を0.75%に据え置くことを決定した。イラン戦争による石油価格高騰への懸念が背景にある。政策委員会の投票は6対3で、3人の反対があった。

The South African Reserve Bank kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.75% on Thursday, citing the ongoing Iran war and rising oil prices. Governor Lesetja Kganyago said inflation remains on target but could accelerate if the conflict persists. The bank warned of potential rate hikes later this year.

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Following TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné's stark warning of impending energy shortages, other French business leaders like LVMH's Bernard Arnault and Saint-Gobain's Benoit Bazin express growing alarm over the economic fallout from two months of US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. President Macron seeks to reassure, but concerns mount.

Global oil prices are poised for their strongest monthly gain on record, with Brent crude nearing a 60% March surge due to the Iran war. US President Donald Trump indicated he is considering an exit from the conflict despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker attacks continue to choke supplies.

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イランによるホルムズ海峡封鎖から3週間、米イラン和平交渉が決裂し、米海軍がイランの輸出を抑制するために独自の封鎖措置を講じたことで、原油価格はさらに8%上昇し、1バレル100ドルを超えました。この事態の激化は世界的な供給懸念を高めており、トランプ大統領は11月の中間選挙まで燃料価格が高止まりする可能性があると警告しています。

 

 

 

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