米国の借入コストは、戦争によるインフレ以外の要因で上昇している。
債券投資家が目前の物価圧力を超えて先を見据える中、実質利回りが上昇している。公的債務の増大、AIへの投資、そして中央銀行による利上げの可能性もこの上昇に寄与している。専門家は、原油価格が安定した後もこうした高い借入コストが持続し、政府や経済に影響を及ぼし続ける可能性があると指摘している。
イランとの紛争後も米国の高金利は継続とストラテジストが警告
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Asia shares slip amid escalating US-Iran tensions
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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.
Global financial markets reacted on Monday to renewed surges in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing the economic ripple effects first seen after the Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade earlier this year.
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Asian stocks fell alongside Wall Street after US inflation data showed faster price growth. Rising oil prices tied to conflict in Iran pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase in 2027.
The Bank of Japan on April 28 kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting, as the war in Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and spiked oil prices. The policy board voted 6-3, signaling potential hawkishness ahead.
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Inflation expectations are increasing in US breakeven rates and eurozone swap rates, influenced by recent statements from President Trump. Oil prices have stabilized alongside reduced anxiety in risk assets, yet concerns persist over widening spreads. Analysts highlight these trends as problematic amid ongoing economic conflicts.
Rising fuel prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran are prompting households and industries worldwide to reduce oil consumption, with experts suggesting some changes may endure. The International Energy Agency has noted demand destruction, forecasting a drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year. Asia, hit hardest by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating shifts toward renewables and electric technologies.
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Governments in Asia, the top oil-importing region, are seeking alternatives to shield economies from the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war. The Asian Development Bank cut its growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.7% this year. Oil imports to the region plunged 30% in April.
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