US borrowing costs are rising due to factors beyond war inflation.
Real yields are increasing as bond investors look past immediate price pressures. Growing public debt, AI investment, and the possibility of central banks raising interest rates are also contributing. Experts suggest these higher borrowing costs may persist even after oil prices stabilize, impacting governments and economies.
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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.
Global financial markets reacted on Monday to renewed surges in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing the economic ripple effects first seen after the Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade earlier this year.
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Asian stocks fell alongside Wall Street after US inflation data showed faster price growth. Rising oil prices tied to conflict in Iran pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase in 2027.
일본은행(BOJ)은 4월 28일 이란과의 전쟁으로 호르무즈 해협이 봉쇄되고 유가가 급등함에 따라 기준금리를 지난번에 이어 0.75%로 동결했다. 정책위원회는 6대 3으로 금리 동결을 결정했으며, 향후 매파적 통화정책 기조로의 전환 가능성을 시사했다.
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Inflation expectations are increasing in US breakeven rates and eurozone swap rates, influenced by recent statements from President Trump. Oil prices have stabilized alongside reduced anxiety in risk assets, yet concerns persist over widening spreads. Analysts highlight these trends as problematic amid ongoing economic conflicts.
Rising fuel prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran are prompting households and industries worldwide to reduce oil consumption, with experts suggesting some changes may endure. The International Energy Agency has noted demand destruction, forecasting a drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year. Asia, hit hardest by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating shifts toward renewables and electric technologies.
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세계 최대 원유 수입 지역인 아시아 각국은 이란 전쟁으로 촉발된 에너지 위기로부터 자국 경제를 보호하기 위해 대안을 모색하고 있다. 아시아개발은행(ADB)은 올해 개발도상국 아시아 지역의 경제성장률 전망치를 4.7%로 하향 조정했다. 아시아 지역의 4월 원유 수입량은 30% 급감했다.