US borrowing costs are rising due to factors beyond war inflation.
Real yields are increasing as bond investors look past immediate price pressures. Growing public debt, AI investment, and the possibility of central banks raising interest rates are also contributing. Experts suggest these higher borrowing costs may persist even after oil prices stabilize, impacting governments and economies.
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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.
Global financial markets reacted on Monday to renewed surges in oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, continuing the economic ripple effects first seen after the Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade earlier this year.
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Asian stocks fell alongside Wall Street after US inflation data showed faster price growth. Rising oil prices tied to conflict in Iran pushed Treasury yields higher and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase in 2027.
4月28日，日本央行将基准利率维持在0.75%，这是该行连续第二次会议维持利率不变。此前，伊朗战事导致霍尔木兹海峡关闭，引发油价飙升。政策委员会以6比3的投票结果通过此项决定，显示出未来可能采取鹰派立场。
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Inflation expectations are increasing in US breakeven rates and eurozone swap rates, influenced by recent statements from President Trump. Oil prices have stabilized alongside reduced anxiety in risk assets, yet concerns persist over widening spreads. Analysts highlight these trends as problematic amid ongoing economic conflicts.
Rising fuel prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran are prompting households and industries worldwide to reduce oil consumption, with experts suggesting some changes may endure. The International Energy Agency has noted demand destruction, forecasting a drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year. Asia, hit hardest by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating shifts toward renewables and electric technologies.
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作为全球最大的石油进口地区，亚洲各国政府正在寻求替代方案，以保护本国经济免受伊朗战争引发的能源危机影响。亚洲开发银行将发展中亚洲地区的今年经济增长预期下调至4.7%。4月份，该地区的石油进口量骤降30%。