Iran war drives potential permanent decline in global oil demand

Rising fuel prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran are prompting households and industries worldwide to reduce oil consumption, with experts suggesting some changes may endure. The International Energy Agency has noted demand destruction, forecasting a drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year. Asia, hit hardest by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating shifts toward renewables and electric technologies.

Since the Iran war began in late February, average gasoline prices in the United States have climbed above $4.50 a gallon. This represents a roughly 40 percent increase and has led American drivers to pay $45 billion more for fuel compared to the previous year. Surveys indicate that 44 percent of U.S. adults have reduced driving, opting instead for public transit, carpooling, or remote work. Similar patterns appear in cities from Cincinnati to Los Angeles, with increased use of bicycles, scooters, and electric vehicles.

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Dramatic illustration of oil prices surging past $110 amid US-Israel-Iran war, depicting panicked traders, crashing markets, and fiery Persian Gulf conflict.
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Oil prices top $110 as Iran war enters second week

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Crude oil prices have climbed above $110 per barrel—up 20% in days and over 50% since the war began—as the US-Israel conflict with Iran persists into its second week, fueling fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Asian markets tumbled, while US President Donald Trump called the spike a 'necessary sacrifice' for security.

在美国和以色列对伊朗发动大规模袭击一周后,油价突破每桶90美元大关,此事已升级为中东战争。该冲突使波斯湾的石油运输船只滞留,并损坏了关键设施,扰乱了供应。全球消费者因此面临更高的汽油和柴油成本。

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伊朗战争导致全球汽油价格上涨,据预计将加速电动车(EV)普及。中国2025年新车销量一半以上为电动车,可每年节省280亿美元石油进口成本。

Two weeks into Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel and natural gas costs have risen, accelerating adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, analysts say. Asia, the primary recipient of fuels through the strait, faces acute vulnerability.

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With Brent crude already past $100 due to prior Iranian attacks and Strait of Hormuz issues, escalating US-Iran tensions now raise worst-case fears of $200 per barrel oil prices. India's stock markets have plunged, hitting oil firms hardest, amid risks of wider deficits, rupee weakness, and inflation.

Entering its tenth day on March 9, 2026, the US-Israel-Iran war—already disrupting Middle East supplies as reported earlier—saw Brent oil spike to $120 per barrel amid Iran's 90% traffic cutoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatens escalated strikes and eases sanctions, while banks eye $150 peaks and G7 holds off on reserves.

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As the US-Israeli war with Iran enters its second week, oil prices have surged to $104-$120 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz blockades, intensifying inflation and fuel cost fears in South Africa. With the rand at R16.90/$, analysts predict petrol above R23/litre and potential SARB rate hikes.

 

 

 

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