Iran war drives potential permanent decline in global oil demand

Rising fuel prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran are prompting households and industries worldwide to reduce oil consumption, with experts suggesting some changes may endure. The International Energy Agency has noted demand destruction, forecasting a drop of 420,000 barrels per day this year. Asia, hit hardest by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is accelerating shifts toward renewables and electric technologies.

Since the Iran war began in late February, average gasoline prices in the United States have climbed above $4.50 a gallon. This represents a roughly 40 percent increase and has led American drivers to pay $45 billion more for fuel compared to the previous year. Surveys indicate that 44 percent of U.S. adults have reduced driving, opting instead for public transit, carpooling, or remote work. Similar patterns appear in cities from Cincinnati to Los Angeles, with increased use of bicycles, scooters, and electric vehicles.

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Dramatic illustration of oil prices surging past $110 amid US-Israel-Iran war, depicting panicked traders, crashing markets, and fiery Persian Gulf conflict.
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Oil prices top $110 as Iran war enters second week

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Crude oil prices have climbed above $110 per barrel—up 20% in days and over 50% since the war began—as the US-Israel conflict with Iran persists into its second week, fueling fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Asian markets tumbled, while US President Donald Trump called the spike a 'necessary sacrifice' for security.

Oil prices have surged past $90 a barrel a week after the US and Israel launched major attacks on Iran, escalating into a Middle East war. The conflict has stranded oil shipments in the Persian Gulf and damaged key facilities, disrupting supplies. Consumers globally face higher gasoline and diesel costs as a result.

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The Iran war has caused worldwide petrol price hikes, expected to accelerate global electric vehicle (EV) uptake. In China, more than half of new car sales were EVs in 2025, potentially saving US$28 billion a year in avoided oil import costs.

Two weeks into Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel and natural gas costs have risen, accelerating adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, analysts say. Asia, the primary recipient of fuels through the strait, faces acute vulnerability.

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With Brent crude already past $100 due to prior Iranian attacks and Strait of Hormuz issues, escalating US-Iran tensions now raise worst-case fears of $200 per barrel oil prices. India's stock markets have plunged, hitting oil firms hardest, amid risks of wider deficits, rupee weakness, and inflation.

Il 9 marzo 2026, entrando nel suo decimo giorno, la guerra USA-Israele-Iran — che sta già interrompendo le forniture del Medio Oriente come riportato in precedenza — ha visto il Brent schizzare a 120 dollari al barile a causa del taglio del 90% del traffico nello Stretto di Hormuz da parte dell'Iran. Trump minaccia colpi escalati e allenta le sanzioni, mentre le banche prevedono picchi a 150 dollari e il G7 trattiene le riserve.

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As the US-Israeli war with Iran enters its second week, oil prices have surged to $104-$120 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz blockades, intensifying inflation and fuel cost fears in South Africa. With the rand at R16.90/$, analysts predict petrol above R23/litre and potential SARB rate hikes.

 

 

 

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