Chile's Central Bank reported that the Economic Activity Index (Imacec) fell 0.3% in February, accumulating a 0.4% contraction in the first two months of the year. Goods production dropped 3.7%, though mining saw a slight rebound. Economists are adjusting forecasts for 2026 GDP near 2%.
Chile's Central Bank reported the Economic Activity Index (Imacec) fell 0.3% in February, marking the second straight month of contraction after January's -0.5%. This figure, below expectations of at least 0% or 1.8%, stemmed from a 3.7% annual drop in goods production, hit by fruit farming, extractive fishing, and fish processing manufacturing.
Mining grew 1.0% due to higher lithium and gold extraction, despite lower copper output. Commerce rose 0.2%, driven by retail sales in groceries, clothing, online platforms, and automotive services. Services increased 1.6% over twelve months, led by health and business services.
On a deseasonalized basis, the index declined 0.3% monthly, mainly from commerce and industry. The non-mining Imacec fell 0.3% annually.
Economists are revising forecasts: Valentina Apablaza of OCEC-UDP sees a 2% ceiling for 2026 GDP due to weak start, fiscal adjustment, and external conditions. Others like Priscila Robledo of Fintual and Hermann González of Clapes-UC agree on a first-quarter near 0% and annual growth below 2%. Rodrigo Cruz of Banco Santander projects 2.2%.
