Cynthia Erivo's chances for a Best Actress Oscar nomination have dropped significantly, falling 25 percentage points to 38% according to Gold Derby predictions. The Wicked: For Good star slipped out of the top five contenders after a mixed reception to the sequel and a snub at the Critics Choice Awards. Despite this, she secured a Golden Globe nomination, offering some hope for a comeback.
Odds Update
Cynthia Erivo, who reprises her role as Elphaba in the Universal Pictures sequel Wicked: For Good, has seen her Oscar prospects dim. Gold Derby's latest predictions place her at seventh for Best Actress with just a 38% chance of nomination, down from a consistent top-five position throughout the awards season. Leading the pack are Jessie Buckley for Hamnet at 97%, Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value at 94%, Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You at 79%, Emma Stone for Bugonia at 66%, Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee at 55%, and Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another at 45%.
Factors Behind the Drop
The decline aligns with a tempered response to Wicked: For Good, which opened strong at the box office in November but earned a 68% Rotten Tomatoes score, lower than the 88% for the 2024 original. Critics and fans noted it fell short of the first film's hype. Erivo's omission from the Critics Choice Awards' six Best Actress nominees—awarded to Buckley, Byrne, Reinsve, Seyfried, Stone, and Infiniti—delivered a setback, especially after her nomination for the initial Wicked.
Signs of Resilience
Erivo bounced back with a Golden Globe nod in Best Film Comedy or Musical Actress, joined by Byrne, Stone, Seyfried, Infiniti, and Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. She sits third in Globe odds behind Byrne's 83% lead. Recent press efforts include performing Nina Simone's 'Feeling Good' at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, a flying appearance on NBC's Wicked: One Wonderful Night special, and a duet with co-star Ariana Grande at an FYC event.
A dual nomination for Erivo and Grande in their roles would mark them as the seventh and eighth performers nominated twice for the same character, following precedents like Al Pacino in The Godfather films and Cate Blanchett as Elizabeth I. Oscar nominations announce on January 22, 2026, with voting from January 12 to 16.
