Kenya's by-elections on November 27 may seem small, but their political risks to top leaders are significant. Figures like President William Ruto, Rigathi Gachagua, and ODM leadership face a major test in areas such as Mbeere North and Malava. Campaigns end on November 24, 2025, ahead of the vote.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has approved 181 candidates for 24 electoral areas, including the Baringo Senate seat, six parliamentary constituencies—Mbeere North, Malava, Kasipul, Ugunja, Magarini, and Banisa—and 17 wards. IEBC Elections Operations Manager Gideon Balang stated, “Campaigns will end on Monday, November 24, 2025, which is 48 hours before the by-election day.”
The most fiercely contested seats are Mbeere North and Malava, where President William Ruto has tasked Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki with securing a win for the government candidate. This turns the poll into a measure of Kindiki's political clout in Mount Kenya East and his potential as Ruto's 2027 running mate. A loss there could threaten Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire. Ruto aide Farouk Kibet has overseen UDA campaigns in Malava for weeks.
Gachagua, meanwhile, backs opposition alliance candidates, with Malava in his traditional stronghold. Analyst Dismas Mokua said, “Every camp has a big responsibility to win these key seats.” A Ruto defeat would be a blow to the government, bolstering Gachagua. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi faces pressure in Malava, his Western Kenya base, where DAP-K fields Seth Panyako and UDA supports David Ndakwa.
These are ODM's first major test since Raila Odinga's death on October 15 in India. The party relies on Odinga's 'final blessings' for candidates Boyd Were (Kasipul), Moses Omondi (Ugunja), and Harrison Kombe (Magarini). National Chairperson Gladys Wanga urged, “Vote for ODM candidates to honor Raila Amollo Odinga's legacy.” A loss could raise concerns about ODM's future.