Lula's third term has been marked by exogenous shocks that durably alter political parameters. These events, from the January 8, 2023 invasion to recent police operations, produce varied impacts, including national unity effects and diplomatic controversies. The government faces redefinitions in the political agenda and electoral competition.
President Lula's third term, which began in 2023, has been profoundly influenced by a series of exogenous shocks, described as structural changes not directly stemming from government actions. These events produce lasting effects on the political landscape, varying between benefits and costs for the executive.
The first shock occurred right after the inauguration, with the invasion and vandalism of the Praça dos Três Poderes on January 8, 2023. Such episodes at the start of a term are rare and generated a national unity effect, providing significant political gains to the government and imposing costs on the opposition, particularly bolsonarismo.
The second involved revelations about a military conspiracy, exposing details of a coup attempt. Unlike January 8, whose effects dissipated in about a year, this disclosure had a deeper impact, altering relations between institutions and actors. It led to trials with broad media exposure and unprecedented convictions of those involved.
Not all shocks benefited the government. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains for fuels and fertilizers, generating inflationary pressures. Lula's diplomatic gaffes compromised relations with partners like the European Union. This impact was amplified by events in Gaza, which caused similar controversies, relative isolation, and domestic political costs.
Another episode was the tandem of tariff hikes and U.S. interference in Bolsonaro's trial, triggering a new national unity effect and reversing the government's approval drop. The police operation in Complexo do Alemão redefined political competition, redirecting the agenda toward security and fighting organized crime. This shift coincided with Guilherme Boulos's nomination to the General Secretariat of the Presidency, a move contrary to the damage control needed.