Accumulated fiscal spending to april exceeds 2021-2025 average

The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee reported that central government total and primary spending through April 2026 reached 7.5% and 6% of GDP respectively.

According to the report released on May 19, these figures exceed by one percentage point the average total spending and by half a point the primary spending recorded between 2021 and 2025. Primary spending measured through current-year payments stood at 4.8% of GDP, a level similar to April 2025.

Execution of the budget reserve reached 55% of the 43 trillion pesos constituted, while obligations reached 71.3%. Payments from this reserve represented 1.2% of GDP, a reduction of 0.3 points from the same period last year.

In April TES securities recorded devaluations, with an average rise of 19 basis points in peso rates. The zero-coupon curve slope between one and ten years stood at negative seven basis points, below recent averages.

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Colombian Finance Minister presenting 2026 economic projections including dollar rate at $3,801 and Brent oil at $59.2, amid charts and a skeptical press audience.
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Colombian government projects dollar at $3,801 and brent at us$59.2 for 2026

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The Ministry of Finance published the Financial Plan for 2026, projecting 2.6% GDP growth and 5.8% inflation. The document estimates an average dollar rate of $3,801 and Brent barrel at US$59.2, though analysts warn of calculation errors and lack of concrete measures for fiscal cuts. The publication was delayed by more than a month compared to previous years.

The Ministry of Finance reported that at the end of January 2026, the sectors of Foreign Affairs, Environment, and Education recorded the highest budget executions in the National General Budget. These reached 10.5%, 8.6%, and 6% respectively, above the overall average of 3.9%. Total payments amounted to 17.1 trillion pesos, with 8.2 trillion allocated to debt service.

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Chile's Dirección de Presupuestos (Dipres) reported that the Government's gross debt hit US$158.215 billion by the end of Q1 2026, or 42.6% of GDP. Fiscal cash reserves fell to US$597 million, as fiscal revenues rose 0.9% in real annual terms and public spending 0.7%. The report notes heterogeneous performance driven by mining.

The Banco de la República released its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations, forecasting year-end inflation at 6.32% and interest rates at 12.25%. These projections mark an upward revision from March. Experts anticipate a gradual moderation in subsequent years.

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The Argentine government announced a fiscal surplus in February, marking two consecutive months of positive balance. Economy Minister Luis Caputo released the public sector data and highlighted spending reductions.

Economists on the scientific advisory board to the Stability Council forecast an excessive deficit of 4.25 percent for 2026. They urge the federal government to make more savings to avoid breaching EU debt rules.

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Yields on one-year TES bonds have climbed to historic levels in auctions held by Colombia's Finance Ministry so far in 2026.

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