Mexico’s 2026 GDP growth estimates have been revised downward by market analysts, the OECD and other institutions.
The median consensus among analysts placed Mexican GDP growth at 1.1 percent in the most recent surveys, down from 1.5 percent recorded in January 2026. Banco de México lowered its projection to 1.1 percent and the OECD placed it at 0.8 percent for the year. Bursamétrica adjusted its estimate to 0.6 percent annually. The Finance Ministry maintains a range of between 1.8 and 2.8 percent, with a midpoint of 2.3 percent. Factors cited include uncertainty over the T-MEC review, difficulties consolidating the fiscal deficit and outlook changes by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s. Finance Secretary Edgar Amador noted that increased public investment could boost activity in the second half of the year.
