Bitcoin options traders target $100,000 strike after rebound

Traders in the Bitcoin options market are focusing on contracts that could see the cryptocurrency return to $100,000, buoyed by hopes of renewed investor interest following a sharp fourth-quarter decline. Data from a major derivatives exchange highlights significant open interest in these optimistic positions.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a notable crash in the fourth quarter of 2025, prompting a rebound that has caught the attention of options traders. According to recent market data, open interest in Bitcoin options is heavily concentrated on contracts set to expire on January 30, 2026, with a strike price of $100,000. This positioning reflects trader optimism that Bitcoin could reclaim its previous highs as investors pivot back to digital assets.

The total notional value of these $100,000 call options surpasses that of the next most active contract by more than double. That secondary contract consists of put options at an $80,000 strike price, also expiring on the same date. This disparity underscores a prevailing bullish sentiment among market participants.

The insights come from Coinbase Global Inc.'s Deribit derivatives exchange, a key platform for crypto futures and options trading. While the fourth-quarter meltdown shook confidence, the clustering of interest at higher strike prices suggests traders anticipate a recovery driven by broader market dynamics.

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Dramatic illustration of Bitcoin's retreat to $70,000 amid Iran war escalation, oil price surge, strong USD, and looming options expiry.
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Bitcoin retreats toward $70,000 as Iran war intensifies, ahead of options expiry

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Following a mid-week rally above $68,000, Bitcoin retreated toward $70,000 by early March 6, 2026, erasing $110 billion in market capitalization amid worsening Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The pullback occurs despite ongoing institutional adoption, with $2.6 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire, heightening volatility risks.

Derivatives markets indicate that bitcoin could rise 14% to $80,000 by the end of June, according to analysis from Derive.xyz. This optimistic outlook persists amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. MicroStrategy has added to its holdings by purchasing $1.3 billion worth of bitcoin.

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A trading expert has forecasted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by early November 2027, based on historical patterns and technical indicators. This outlook comes amid a recent sharp decline in Bitcoin's price, triggered by coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran. The cryptocurrency fell as much as 6% following the geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin surged above $80,000 for the first time since January during early Asian trading on May 4, 2026, reaching highs around $80,600. The cryptocurrency later pulled back to around $79,000 following reports of an Iranian missile strike on a U.S. warship, which the U.S. denied. Geopolitical risks near the Strait of Hormuz overshadowed strong ETF inflows supporting the rally.

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Bitcoin fell 1.7% to around $67,600 on Tuesday, influenced by rising geopolitical concerns and outflows from exchange-traded funds. The cryptocurrency's price movement mirrored declines in equity futures, highlighting its growing ties to broader market sentiment. Investors are showing caution due to tensions around Iran and uncertainties in AI's economic role and Federal Reserve policies.

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