CBE explains January 2026 inflation slowdown as non-food pressures ease

The Central Bank of Egypt has outlined factors behind moderated inflation in January 2026, with annual urban headline inflation falling to 11.9% from 12.3% in December 2025, driven mainly by non-food inflation dropping to 18.6%, its lowest since October 2023. Food inflation rose temporarily to 1.9% from 1.5%. Nationwide headline inflation eased slightly to 10.1% from 10.3%.

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) detailed the key drivers of moderated inflation in January 2026, where annual urban headline inflation declined to 11.9% from 12.3% in December 2025. This moderation stemmed primarily from annual non-food inflation falling to 18.6%, the lowest since October 2023, which offset a slight rise in annual food inflation to 1.9% from 1.5%.

Monthly urban headline inflation reached 1.2% in January, up from 0.2% in December 2025 but below 1.5% in January 2025. The increase was mainly due to higher food prices, aligning with seasonal pre-Ramadan patterns. Non-food inflation eased in the month, showing stability across most categories.

Rural annual headline inflation held steady at around 8.4%, compared to 8.3% in December, leading to nationwide headline inflation dipping to 10.1% from 10.3%.

On a monthly basis, food inflation accelerated to 2.3% from -0.7% in December, driven by a 3.7% rise in volatile food prices: fresh vegetables up 8.4%, fresh fruits down 2.8%, poultry surging 11.6%, and eggs increasing 1.4%. These contributed significantly to the headline figure. Monthly non-food inflation softened to 0.5% from 0.8%, with services inflation at 0.7% from rents and restaurant prices, regulated prices up 0.4% including tobacco and LPG, and retail up 0.4% in clothing and personal care.

Annual core inflation edged down to 11.2% from 11.8%, supported by lower retail and services contributions. Food added 0.77% to annual headline, while non-food contributed 11.12%.

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for February 2026 rose 0.3% month-over-month and remained at 2.4% year-over-year, matching economist expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and stayed at 2.5% annually. While inflation showed stability before the recent U.S.-Israel-Iran war, surging oil prices are expected to push future readings higher.

Egypt’s annual urban headline inflation accelerated to 13.4% in February 2026, up from 11.9% in January, driven by seasonal rises in food and non-food prices. Food inflation reached 4.6%, while non-food inflation climbed to 19.3%.

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CORE Indonesia projects March 2026 annual inflation at 3.5-3.6 percent, down from February's 4.76 percent. The forecast reflects a low-base effect from electricity tariffs, though Lebaran and non-subsidized fuel prices may push monthly inflation higher. Official BPS data is due on April 1, 2026.

The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) reported that Colombia's annual inflation for February 2026 was 5.29%, a slight slowdown from January's 5.35%. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) variation stood at 1.08%, driven by rises in education and food. This figure remains above the Central Bank's target range of 3%.

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Argentina's Central Bank released its latest Market Expectations Survey, drawing from 45 analysts' projections, estimating 2.4% inflation for January 2026 and a dollar rate of $1,475 in February.

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Tokyo's core consumer price index rose 1.8% in February, falling below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time since October 2024. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's utility subsidies curbed household energy costs, posing a communication challenge for the central bank's planned interest rate hikes. The figure exceeded economists' median forecast of 1.7%.

 

 

 

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