US and Mexican diplomats shaking hands over 1944 Water Treaty map by the flowing Rio Grande, symbolizing resolved water delivery dispute.
US and Mexican diplomats shaking hands over 1944 Water Treaty map by the flowing Rio Grande, symbolizing resolved water delivery dispute.
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Mexico and US agree on water delivery under 1944 treaty

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Mexico and the United States reached an agreement on December 13, 2025, for the delivery of 249.163 million cubic meters of Rio Grande water, starting next week, following tensions over the 1944 Water Treaty. The deal averts a 5% tariff threat from Donald Trump and addresses the previous water deficit. Mexico maintains it complies with the treaty despite drought in the northern border region.

Agreement between Mexico and the United States on the Water Treaty

On December 13, 2025, the governments of Mexico and the United States announced a joint understanding to resolve disputes under the 1944 Treaty of Limits and Waters, which regulates water distribution in the Colorado, Rio Grande, and Conchos rivers. Mexico commits to releasing 249.163 million cubic meters of water, with deliveries starting the week of December 15. This volume addresses the demand for 246.6 million pending, according to President Donald Trump, who threatened a 5% tariff if unmet by December 31.

The treaty stipulates that the United States delivers 1.850 million cubic meters annually from the Colorado River to Mexico, while Mexico provides 2.185 million in five-year cycles from the Rio Grande to the United States. Both countries recognize the 'critical importance' of these obligations for border communities and agree to strengthen resource management. Negotiations to cover the previous cycle's deficit will conclude by January 31, 2026. In case of non-compliance, each nation may act sovereignly, subject to international obligations.

Mexico's Secretariat of Foreign Affairs (SRE) emphasized no treaty violations occurred and additional deliveries were made 'always within the legal framework and operational limits,' without affecting water for human consumption and agricultural production. 'Mexico complies according to the real availability of the resource, without affecting the human right to water and food production,' the communique stated.

Tensions have risen over the past five years due to severe droughts, farmer protests in Chihuahua in 2020, and diplomatic pressures. Trump claims Mexico owes over 986.4 million cubic meters accumulated, impacting U.S. farmers and ranchers. In Mexico, the National Agricultural Council (CNA) warned the delivery could cause 'hunger' and damage in states like Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas, leading to uncontrollable migration. 'Without a doubt, it would generate a lot of hunger and a lot of damage in the area,' said Jorge Esteve Recolons, CNA president.

The International Boundary and Water Commission (CILA/IBWC) oversees compliance, promoting binational solutions to environmental challenges.

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US users and officials praise Trump for securing water deliveries benefiting Texas farmers and averting tariffs. Mexican critics mock the government for bending to US pressure amid northern drought. Supporters claim treaty compliance without violations and ongoing negotiations. Skeptics highlight tensions and need for renegotiation.

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Mexican deputies applaud water law reform approval in chamber as protesting farmers block highway outside, highlighting political tension over water rights.
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Mexican deputies approve water law reform amid protests

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The Chamber of Deputies approved the reform to the National Waters Law in general with 328 votes in favor, despite protests from farmers who blocked highways and demanded dialogue. The initiative, pushed by President Claudia Sheinbaum, prioritizes the human right to water and bans its hoarding, with penalties of up to eight years in prison for water crimes. The Senate is set to vote on it this Thursday.

Building on December's initial accord, Mexico and the US agreed to a minimum annual Rio Grande water supply of 350,000 acre-feet, addressing drought deficits and past shortfalls under the 1944 Water Treaty. The deal follows a call between Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump, with plans for debt repayment and monthly oversight to support border communities.

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Following the December 13 agreement with the US to deliver 249 million cubic meters of Rio Grande water, Mexico still owes over 50%—1,170 million cubic meters—of its 2020-2025 obligations under the 1944 Water Treaty, says Water Advisory Council president Raúl Rodríguez. The deal averts Trump's tariff threats, with more payments planned.

Mexico became Cuba's main oil supplier in 2025, overtaking Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro's capture. Pemex sends high-quality light crudes like Istmo and Olmeca, suited to the island's outdated refineries, though this imposes a significant economic cost on the country. President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed the shipments will continue as humanitarian aid, despite potential reprisals from Donald Trump.

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Mexico and the United States will launch the first formal bilateral round of talks on March 16 in Washington to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC), announced by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard on March 5 following agreement with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Discussions will cover rules of origin, industrial integration, supply chain security, and regional competitiveness, as Mexico's private sector expresses optimism.

Rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro could complicate the 2026 T-MEC review negotiations, impacting trade relations with Mexico. President Claudia Sheinbaum's non-intervention stance clashes with Donald Trump's maximum pressure strategy. Analysts warn of a potential diplomatic clash that could contaminate the trade agreement.

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Alejandro Murat, president of the Senate's Foreign Relations Commission, dismissed concerns that T-MEC negotiations between Mexico, the United States, and Canada will fail. He stated that leaders from the three nations are in daily contact to bolster the treaty. Meanwhile, business leaders are reviewing strategies for the trade agreement's update.

 

 

 

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