A national poll indicates that 66% of Colombians will surely vote in the March 8 legislative elections. The Pacto Histórico leads congressional preferences with 23%, followed by the Centro Democrático with 15%. In the presidential race, Iván Cepeda tops with 30% voter intention.
The Gran Encuesta, conducted by GAD3 Colombia S.A.S for Noticias RCN, La FM, Alerta, and La República, published on January 18, 2026, projects significant voter turnout for the March 8 legislative elections. The poll shows 66% of respondents will surely vote, 18% probably; only 7% definitely won't and 6% probably not, with 4% no response.
On party preferences for Congress, Pacto Histórico would secure 23% of seats, up from 16.95% in 2022, gaining leverage on social reforms like health and pensions. Centro Democrático follows with 15%, up from 11.47%. Others: Liberal 7%, Cambio Radical 4%, Conservative 2%, and independents like Alianza Verde dropping to 1%.
Former Finance Minister José Manuel Restrepo noted rising citizen interest in fiscal, energy, and security issues, stressing the need for a capable Congress. "The dimension of the problems... will require enormous work between the Executive and Legislative," he said.
For the May 31 presidential elections, Iván Cepeda leads with 30%, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 22% and Paloma Valencia at 3%. In inter-party consultations, Paloma Valencia wins the center-right one with 23%, and Cepeda the Frente Amplio with 34%. Second-round scenarios favor Cepeda, such as against de la Espriella (40% vs 32%).
Analysts like Manuel Camilo González highlight polarization and economic relevance. 66% approve the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, affecting regional agenda. The poll reflects a complex electoral environment with political fragmentation.
