After a deep crisis in the 2010s, Portugal is set to post a budget surplus for the second consecutive year in 2025. This success contrasts with France's financial struggles, where the government watches with interest. Former Portuguese Finance Minister Mario Centeno shares advice on public finance restructuring.
Portugal, which faced a sovereign debt crisis in 2010 with a deficit exceeding 10% of GDP, has achieved a remarkable turnaround. In 2015, under Finance Minister Mario Centeno of the Socialist Party, restructuring efforts began to yield results, confirming a debt reduction path. Centeno, who led public finance reforms from 2015 to 2020 before serving as Bank of Portugal governor until 2025, states: « In 2010, few expected such an outcome. The efforts seemed colossal. »
Today, under center-right Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, the country anticipates a 0.3% GDP budget surplus in 2025, followed by 0.1% in 2026, despite tax cuts for youth and businesses, increases in small pensions, and a rebound in solidarity allowances for the needy. In 2022, Portugal was still among the Eurozone's most indebted nations, but it now borrows more cheaply on international markets: 2.9% versus 3.3% for France on 10-year sovereign bonds.
This trajectory prompts reflection in France's government under Sébastien Lecornu, burdened by debt. Centeno advises France to draw lessons from Portugal, particularly on pensions addressed two decades ago. « In Portugal, the pensions issue was handled twenty years ago », he emphasizes, urging early and structured measures to avert budgetary pitfalls.