Robinhood misses Q4 revenue estimates due to crypto slump

Robinhood Markets reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion for 2025, falling short of analyst forecasts of $1.33 billion, primarily due to a 38% drop in crypto trading revenue to $221 million. Despite the miss, earnings per share of $0.66 exceeded expectations of $0.63. The results highlight the impact of a broader crypto market downturn on the trading platform's business.

Robinhood Markets released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 on February 10, 2026. Total revenue for the quarter rose 27% year-over-year to $1.28 billion, while full-year revenue reached a record $4.5 billion. However, the figure missed Wall Street estimates of $1.33 billion, with profits declining to $605 million, or $0.66 per share, from $916 million, or $1.01 per share, in the prior year—though it still beat analyst expectations of $0.63 per share.

The revenue shortfall was largely attributed to weakness in the crypto segment. Crypto trading revenue fell 38% from $358 million a year earlier to $221 million, reflecting lower digital asset prices that reduced trading activity. This decline occurred despite Robinhood's expansions, including new crypto features, transfers across more regions, additional token listings beyond major coins, services for retail and institutional investors in Europe, a proprietary stablecoin, its own blockchain launched in 2025, and tokenised stock trading in Europe. The company also introduced a prediction markets offering, which helped offset some effects of the crypto downturn.

Overall transaction-based revenue increased 15% to $776 million, supported by gains in equity and options trading. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev addressed the crypto volatility during the earnings call, stating, “We’re moving into a world where crypto is more than an asset class. If we play our cards right, crypto will play its role in giving customers what they need.” He added, “We’re not getting distracted by short term [price] fluctuations.”

The results come amid a severe crypto market crash on October 10, 2025, when over $19 billion in leveraged bets were liquidated—the largest such event in crypto history. Bitcoin traded at $68,590 per coin recently, 45% below its all-time high. Robinhood shares fell nearly 7% in after-hours trading following the release and have declined 25% year-to-date, underscoring the platform's ties to crypto performance. The stock, trading at $79, is down nearly 50% from its early October 2025 peak. Analysts anticipate similar pressures on competitor Coinbase when it reports earnings later in the week.

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Illustration of Coinbase stock rebounding after earnings miss and AWS outage, with Bitcoin above $80,000.
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Coinbase rebounds after earnings miss and aws outage

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Coinbase shares recovered 10 percent from session lows on Friday following a weaker-than-expected first-quarter report and a multi-hour trading outage tied to Amazon Web Services failures. Bitcoin held above $80,000 while several altcoins posted gains of 5 to 12 percent.

A wave of cryptocurrency exchange initial public offerings in 2025 highlighted the sector's maturation, but recent setbacks reveal heavy dependence on Bitcoin's price movements. Gemini's post-IPO struggles and Kraken's frozen listing underscore vulnerabilities to market cycles. Exchanges must prove revenue stability beyond Bitcoin rallies to sustain investor interest.

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Demand for U.S. stocks, particularly AI-related ones, is growing among overseas investors, according to Robinhood's senior vice president Johann Kerbrat. He highlighted tokenization, 24/7 trading, and regulatory changes as key drivers expanding access beyond domestic markets. Kerbrat spoke at Consensus 2026 in Miami.

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