Signs of opposition split emerging before 2027

Two opposition leaders' meetings on Thursday this week signal that their alliance against President William Ruto in 2027 may falter. Despite unity claims, differing statements and November by-elections have raised doubts. Analysts warn this tension could weaken them significantly.

On Thursday this week, opposition leaders held two separate meetings, revealing signs of division despite assertions of unity. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka chaired a session at Chui House in Nairobi with representatives from Rigathi Gachagua's DCP, Eugene Wamalwa's DAP-Kenya, and Justin Muturi's DP. They criticized the current administration for endangering freedoms and institutions, and sharply attacked the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) over the November 26 by-elections, calling them "a shame."

A parallel private meeting was led by Dr. Fred Matiang’i of Jubilee and Martha Karua of PLP, attended by Peter Munya, Ukur Yatani, Lenny Kivuti, James Magara, and spokesperson Mukhisa Kituyi. Matiang’i stated the gathering aimed to bolster opposition unity, structure, and strategy to restore better leadership. Karua added: "This was a jointly planned and accepted meeting by all, please acknowledge that."

Nevertheless, Kituyi noted that some leaders "decided to skip the meeting without even apologizing," while Wamalwa countered: "We are united with one goal... We are solid." These events, alongside post-by-election stances, have sown doubts among supporters.

Political analysts like Dr. Isaac Gichuki describe it as clear division: "You can't build an alliance with two statements coming from different places on the same day." Dolly Ndirangu points to the lack of a consensus presidential candidate, with splits between Kalonzo's group and the Karua-Matiang’i wing. They warn this will hand Ruto an advantage for a second term, urging early unification to challenge him effectively.

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Kalonzo Musyoka speaks at press conference announcing petition over alleged election interference in Mbeere North and Malava by-elections.
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Opposition plans petition over state interference in Mbeere North and Malava by-elections

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Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka announced the United Opposition will file a formal petition challenging alleged state interference in the Mbeere North and Malava by-elections. He claimed evidence shows President William Ruto personally called a local police commander to influence results. The by-elections occurred on November 27, 2025.

Following Raila Odinga's exit from politics, Kenya's opposition faces significant challenges in building unity and preparing for the 2027 elections. Various parties are attempting to form alliances, but internal divisions and competition are undermining their strength. Analysts indicate that unity will be key to success.

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Following recent public disagreements on timing, Kenya's united opposition at the DCP National Delegates Conference pledged to unveil its single 2027 presidential candidate soon after the event, aiming to defeat President William Ruto. Leaders also vowed legal action against a recent attack on DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka criticized President William Ruto's State of the Nation address on November 20, 2025, for failing to address rule of law and constitutional concerns. At an opposition rally in Malava on November 21, 2025, Kalonzo called the speech empty promises that continue to deceive Kenyans. The opposition rallied support for DAP-K candidate in the Malava by-election.

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The Orange Democratic Movement has announced plans to open structured negotiations with other political formations, including the United Democratic Alliance, ahead of the next general election. This decision was reached on Monday, January 12, following a meeting of the ODM Central Committee held in Kilifi County. The talks aim to strengthen the party's national footing through pre-election alliances.

More tensions are anticipated among various factions of the ODM party following statements from its leader Dr. Oburu Oginga about plans to provide direction in June 2026. This relates to calculations for the 2027 elections. Figures such as Edwin Sifuna, Governor James Orengo, and Minister Opiyo Wandayi appear central to this discord.

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According to an Infotrak poll, President William Ruto leads in popularity for the 2027 presidential race if elections were held today. Fred Matiang’i follows with 13 percent, while 31 percent of Kenyans remain undecided. The survey highlights shifts in support following collaboration with Raila Odinga and a recent by-election victory.

 

 

 

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