Preliminary, non-final crime data compiled from hundreds of police agencies suggest the United States is ending 2025 with roughly a 20% decline in homicides from 2024—potentially the largest year-over-year decrease on record, according to a national crime analyst cited by ABC News. Midyear figures from the Major Cities Chiefs Association also show a steep reduction in killings across major U.S. cities, while debate continues over what policies, if any, drove the change.
The United States appears to have recorded a major decline in murders in 2025, based on preliminary figures collected from hundreds of law enforcement agencies.
A national crime analyst, Jeff Asher, told ABC News that a sampling of preliminary crime statistics from 550 agencies indicates homicides were down by roughly 20% in 2025 compared with 2024—an estimate he said would still represent the largest one-year drop ever recorded even under more conservative assumptions. ABC News reported that the FBI’s annual national crime report is expected in the second quarter of 2026, and cited separate FBI preliminary data showing homicides fell 18% between September 2024 and August 2025.
Data compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) for January through June 2025 showed 2,800 homicides across 68 responding major-city agencies, down from 3,460 over the same period in 2024. The MCCA survey also reported declines in other violent-crime categories during that midyear window, including robbery and aggravated assault.
Chicago was among the cities showing a notable drop. ABC News reported that Chicago homicides were down about 30% in 2025 from 2024, citing Chicago Police Department statistics.
The decline has unfolded during President Donald Trump’s second term, which began with his inauguration on January 20, 2025. On that day, Trump signed an executive order directing the Justice Department to pursue capital punishment for federal capital crimes, with a stated emphasis on cases involving the murder of law enforcement officers.
Separately, Trump invoked emergency authorities in Washington, D.C. in August 2025. The White House said Trump signed an executive order on August 11, 2025, declaring a “crime emergency” in the District and citing authority under the D.C. Home Rule Act. The Associated Press reported that Trump activated 800 National Guard troops and said more than 500 federal agents would patrol the city, with the attorney general overseeing local law enforcement.
Local leaders disputed the administration’s rationale for the takeover. The Financial Times and the Associated Press reported that D.C. officials argued crime in the capital was falling and questioned whether the legal threshold for an emergency had been met.
Because the homicide decline described in national and city-level figures is based largely on preliminary or partial-year data and because final federal statistics have not yet been released, the precise size of the 2025 change—and the causes behind it—remain subject to further confirmation when the FBI publishes its annual report in 2026.
