Argentina's country risk indicator dropped to 494 basis points on January 27, 2026, its lowest level since May 2018, driven by rising sovereign bonds and the central bank's reserve accumulation. This decline signals growing investor optimism about the country's fiscal solvency. International reserves approach 46 billion dollars after daily net purchases.
On January 27, 2026, Argentina's country risk, as measured by JP Morgan's EMBI, closed at 494 basis points, breaking below the 500-point threshold for the first time in eight years. According to Rava Bursátil data, the indicator opened at 515 points, hit a low of 493, and fell 3.7% from the previous close of 513 units. This drop was driven by advances in dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, such as AL41D (+1.3%) and GD46D (+1.7%), amid demand for Argentine assets.
Over the past week, the country risk declined from 562 points on January 21 to 494, an improvement of over 60 units, with stability over the weekend at 526 points and a close of 513 on January 26. For January so far, the reduction exceeds 13% from 571 points. Analysts cited by Noticias Argentinas attribute this to positive bond quotes, bringing annual yields near 9% and paving the way for a potential return to international markets.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank purchased 32 million dollars that day, marking the seventeenth consecutive day of net buying, boosting reserves to 45.779 billion dollars, with projections to exceed 46 billion soon. Iván Cachanosky, economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, stated: “The fall in country risk is very positive: it broke 500 points, a very good signal. The last time it was at these levels was in 2018.” He credited the improvement to fiscal balance and reserve accumulation, noting that labor reform could strengthen it. In the regional ranking, Argentina (494) surpasses Ecuador (454) but lags behind peers like Uruguay (70) and Chile (87).
This indicator measures the interest rate differential over U.S. Treasuries, implying an extra 4.94% cost for Argentine financing. The trend signals financial normalization ahead of payments like 824 million dollars to the IMF on February 1.
