Indian markets close at over two-year low, rupee at 94.83

Foreign portfolio investors pulled out a record Rs 1.18 lakh crore in March, driving the Sensex down 2.22% to 71,947.55 and Nifty 2.14% to 22,331.40 on Monday. The rupee breached 95 intra-day before closing at 94.83 against the dollar. Elevated crude prices above $100 per barrel due to the West Asia conflict added pressure.

Foreign portfolio investors withdrew about Rs 1.18 lakh crore ($12.7 billion) from Indian equities in March amid global uncertainty and West Asia tensions. This fueled market volatility and soured sentiment, with FPIs offloading Rs 1.31 lakh crore ($14.2 billion) worth of shares so far in 2026. The Nifty 50 and Sensex have declined 14-16% over that period.

On Monday, the Sensex fell 2.22% to 71,947.55—its lowest close since February 14, 2024, when it was at 71,822—and the Nifty dropped 2.14% to 22,331.40. Markets are down 12.52% since the West Asia war began in late February. Domestic institutions, including LIC and mutual funds, bought Rs 1.3 lakh crore in equities during the month.

Crude prices have hovered above $100 per barrel for nearly a month, with India's oil basket averaging $112/bbl in March, up from $69 in February, per Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data. This has widened India's fiscal deficit.

An analyst at a research house noted, “FPIs were sellers in other emerging markets like Taiwan and South Korea. There is a risk-off trend in equity markets globally after the war broke out in West Asia.” They added, “Poor returns from India versus other markets over the last 18 months is the principal reason for FPI indifference. For their selling strategy to change, hostilities in West Asia must end and crude prices decline.”

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The Indian rupee continues to weaken against the US dollar. On Tuesday, it hovered around 95.36 in early trading. Since the beginning of this year, the currency has fallen by around 5.64 per cent.

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Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed nearly 6% higher for the week, snapping a six-week losing streak after a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Both indices rose 1.2% on Friday. Investors adopted a risk-on approach amid reduced volatility.

Foreign portfolio investors have reduced cash market selling in Indian stocks but continue to show caution through derivatives positions. The moves come amid a modest gain in the Nifty index.

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Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex climbed over 0.9% and 1% respectively on Tuesday, amid short covering in anticipation of US-Iran peace talks following the recent ceasefire. Foreign institutional investor selling also eased, supporting the rebound.

Global investors cut their holdings in India's financial services sector during the second half of May, though at a slower pace than earlier in the month. They sold shares worth ₹5,181 crore in the period. FPIs stayed net sellers overall despite inflows into other areas.

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