Major League Baseball's free-agent market has officially opened, sparking predictions for the contracts of the top 10 available players. Analysts forecast deals ranging from long-term megacontracts for stars like Kyle Tucker to shorter pacts for pitchers and hitters, based on precedent, age, and performance. These projections aim to improve on past accuracy within $2 million average annual value for key players.
The MLB free-agent period began with high anticipation, as teams seek to bolster rosters for the 2026 season. This year's class features a mix of elite outfielders, infielders, and pitchers, with predictions drawing from recent comparables adjusted for inflation and player profiles.
Outfielder Kyle Tucker tops the list, coming off an uneven season marred by injuries but praised for his all-around skills. At 29 years old in January, he is expected to join Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Mookie Betts in clearing $30 million annually. Prediction: 12 years, $408 million ($34 million AAV).
Third baseman Alex Bregman, who signed a three-year, $40 million AAV deal last winter with opt-outs, seeks to exceed Matt Chapman's six-year, $151 million contract with the Giants and Rafael Devers' $31 million AAV extension. Prediction: Six years, $192 million ($32 million AAV).
Shortstop/second baseman Bo Bichette faces questions about his shortstop defense, compared to Willy Adames' seven-year, $182 million deal with the Giants. Prediction: Seven years, $189 million ($27 million AAV).
Left-hander Framber Valdez aims for a pact like Max Fried's eight-year, $218 million with the Yankees, targeting similar annual value despite term uncertainties.
Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, nearing 33, is likened to David Ortiz and Teoscar Hernández's three-year, $66 million with the Dodgers. Prediction: Four years, $104 million ($26 million AAV).
Outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, polarizing after success at Yankee Stadium and past slumps, is projected at five years, $125 million ($25 million AAV).
Third baseman/first baseman Munetaka Murakami, posted from Japan's NPB, brings elite strength but high strikeouts and weak defense, above deals for Seiya Suzuki, Masataka Yoshida ($17-18 million AAV over five years), and Jung Hoo Lee ($19 million over six). Prediction: Six years, $140 million ($23.3 million AAV).
Left-hander Shota Imanaga rejected $15 million one-year options after the Cubs declined a three-year, nearly $60 million option, showing slippage but comparable to Nathan Eovaldi. Prediction: Two years, $50 million ($25 million AAV).
First baseman Pete Alonso opted out of a $24 million salary, facing a tough market for right-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman's six-year, $27 million AAV. Prediction: Four years, $108 million ($27 million AAV).
Left-hander Ranger Suárez is eyed for around $25 million AAV, similar to Sean Manaea and Eovaldi, potentially higher without direct comparisons to Valdez.
These forecasts reflect the unpredictable nature of negotiations, with the author noting past successes in predicting within $4.5 million AAV for seven of 10 in the first year and $2 million for five last year.