An Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche gives Marine Le Pen between 34 and 35.5 percent in the first round of the 2027 presidential election. She is credited with a second-round victory against all her potential rivals.
Marine Le Pen dominates the first round in every scenario tested. She receives more than 34 percent of the vote and remains the favorite in the runoff, with 67.5 percent against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and 52 percent against Édouard Philippe.
The poll, conducted online on July 9 and 10 among 1,503 people, places Jean-Luc Mélenchon between 14.5 and 16 percent. He sometimes tails or overtakes Édouard Philippe depending on left-wing candidacies.
Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy on Tuesday after the appeal court decision that suspended her sentence pending a cassation appeal. The Court of Cassation will strive to rule before April 1, 2027.
