An Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche positions Édouard Philippe as best placed to face the Rassemblement national in the presidential runoff, with narrow wins against Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen. Jordan Bardella dominates the first round in most scenarios, except against the former prime minister. All other tested candidates lose to RN figures.
An Elabe poll published on March 28, 2026, and reported by Le Figaro with AFP, shows Édouard Philippe garnering 20.5% to 25.5% of voting intentions in the first round of the next presidential election across six tested scenarios.
In a scenario without a Les Républicains candidate, facing Jordan Bardella at 38% and a split left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12%, Marine Tondelier 4.5%, Olivier Faure 4.5%, Fabien Roussel 4%), Philippe achieves his best result. He scores 22% against Marine Le Pen (31.5%), Mélenchon (11.5%), François Hollande (8.5%), and Bruno Retailleau (8.5%), and 20.5% versus Bardella (35%), Mélenchon (10.5%), Raphaël Glucksmann (10.5%), and Retailleau (7%).
In the runoff, Philippe alone beats the RN: 51.5% against Bardella (48.5%) and 53% against Le Pen (47%). Bardella overwhelmingly defeats Mélenchon (71.5% to 28.5%). Gabriel Attal polls at 11.5% and Gérald Darmanin at 8% in the first round.
Bardella outperforms Le Pen in the first round (35% to 38.5% versus 31.5% to 34%), while her deputy leadership hangs on a July 7 judicial decision.
The phone survey, conducted March 25-27 among 1,504 people (1,422 voters), has a margin of error of 1.4 to 3.1 points.
