Following Raila Odinga's exit from politics, Kenya's opposition faces significant challenges in building unity and preparing for the 2027 elections. Various parties are attempting to form alliances, but internal divisions and competition are undermining their strength. Analysts indicate that unity will be key to success.
The departure of the late Raila Odinga, former ODM leader, has left Kenya's opposition in a precarious position. Raila was not just the face of the opposition but a unifier and mediator with appeal to millions of supporters. "The late Raila Odinga was not merely a symbol of Kenya's opposition; he was its backbone. His politics connected protests with hope," says political analyst Dismas Mokua. Without him, parties are trying to forge new alliances to fill the void.
The current opposition coalition includes leaders such as Rigathi Gachagua of DCP, Fred Matiang’i of Jubilee representing Uhuru Kenyatta, Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper, Eugene Wamalwa of DAP-K, Justin Muturi of Democratic Party, and Martha Karua of PLP. Others include Jimi Wanjigi of Safina, Peter Munya of PNU, Moses Kuria of Chama Cha Kazi, and Mike Sonko of NEDP. However, some members pursue individual paths, though the unity between Gachagua and Kalonzo concerns the government.
According to an Infotrak survey, the government side leads with 32 percent, while the Gachagua-Kalonzo alliance has 22 percent, and Kenya Moja 17 percent. Twenty-nine percent remain unaligned. ODM, under Dr. Oburu Oginga, is considering three options: continuing with UDA, forming a new partnership, or going solo, with a decision expected this year.
The opposition has set March 2026 as the date to announce its presidential candidate, with contenders including Kalonzo, Gachagua, Matiang’i, Karua, and others like Wanjigi, Boniface Mwangi, Okiya Omtatah, and David Maraga. Analysts like Martin Oloo note that history shows unity, as in the 2002 NARC alliance, is essential for victory. Professor Gitile Naituli warns that Ruto faces hurdles due to divisions and youth discontent. The future depends on maintaining unity and finding a new national figure.