JP Morgan released its first report of the year on global markets strategies, highlighting a potential rebound in Venezuelan oil supply to 1.2 million barrels per day in coming months. For Colombia, it forecasts 2.8% GDP growth this year and 6.1% inflation by year-end. The report also covers geopolitical tensions and the US labor market.
In its first 2026 report, JP Morgan examines the global economic landscape amid rising geopolitical tensions. On Venezuela, the bank forecasts that if licenses resume, diluent flows are restored, and Chevron operates without restrictions, oil supply could rise from current 0.8 million barrels per day to 1.2 million in a few months, with a potential increase of 500,000 to 600,000 barrels in two years. This would create a moderate short-term impact on OPEC+ supply adjustments and a price drop in three years or less.
For Colombia, projections show 2.8% GDP growth this year and 2.6% next, with 4.0% in the first quarter. Inflation is estimated at 6.1% for the fourth quarter, higher than in 2025.
The report notes momentum in multidimensional polarization early in 2026, driven by geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Greenland. "While the economic policy uncertainty index remains high, its 20-day moving average is at the 92nd percentile, whereas the 20-day moving average of the VIX is only at the 31st percentile," analysts explain, indicating market resilience despite risks.
In the US, December's labor market added 50,000 non-farm jobs, including 37,000 private ones, lowering unemployment to 4.4%. JP Morgan ruled out Fed rate cuts in January and expects them to stay steady all year. "The fundamental macroeconomic narrative in the US supports our overall view of resilience," the report states, though it warns that rising unemployment could prompt easing, or a shift to inflation focus if it falls.
