Mexico recorded a record foreign direct investment of 40,906 million dollars in the first nine months of 2025, a 14.5% increase from 2024. However, GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter and the IGAE fell 0.6% in September, indicating economic stagnation. Analysts warn of fragility in the industrial sector and risks to employment.
Recent data from the Secretariat of Economy reveal that foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico reached 40,906 million dollars from January to September 2025, a 14.5% annual increase that sets a new historical record for that period. New investments tripled to 6,563 million dollars, representing 16% of the total, while reinvestment of profits, though down 9.7% to 27,749 million, accounted for 67.8%. This strength persists despite tariffs imposed by the United States.
In bilateral trade, Mexico surpassed Canada as the top destination for U.S. exports, with 226,411 million dollars from January to August 2025, slightly above the 225,642 million to Canada. This reflects integration into global value chains and a favorable tariff position.
However, economic growth presents a negative outlook. INEGI reported that GDP contracted 0.3% quarterly in July-September 2025, revised down from a previous 0.4% advance, and 0.2% annually versus 2024. Cumulative January-September, GDP grew only 0.4% annually. The Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) fell 0.6% in September both monthly and annually, reversing August's 0.4%; the industrial sector dropped 3.3% annually with seven consecutive months of decline, services advanced 0.7%, and agriculture 7.4%. For October, the estimate indicates zero growth.
Banco Base analysts highlight industrial fragility, with risks to employment in construction and manufacturing, and deterioration in services like retail and transportation. 'The recent figures demonstrate that economic activity continues to weaken,' they state. The January-September IGAE cumulative shows only 0.12% growth, the lowest since 2020. These signals suggest a slowdown that could reduce annual growth below the expected 0.5%.
