Projections for the 2025 NFL playoffs entering Week 12 show significant shifts, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Chicago Bears on the outside looking in for the first time in years. The Denver Broncos' win over the Chiefs in Week 11 has boosted their division title hopes, while the New England Patriots lead the AFC with the easiest remaining schedule. In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles top the conference standings.
The latest NFL playoff projections, based on simulations by Stephen Oh of SportsLine, highlight a reshaped postseason picture after Week 11. For the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs are not projected to make the playoffs, holding just a 57.7% chance despite a history of reaching at least the AFC title game every year. Their 5-5 record leaves them in a tight race for the AFC West behind the 9-2 Broncos, who have a 78.5% chance of winning the division and the AFC's highest Super Bowl odds at 9.5%.
In the AFC, the projected playoff teams are the New England Patriots (9-2, AFC East champions with a .371 strength of schedule), Denver Broncos (9-2, AFC West), Indianapolis Colts (8-2, AFC South), Baltimore Ravens (5-5, AFC North with a 56.5% division chance after four straight wins), Buffalo Bills (7-3, wild card with 20.7% East odds), Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, wild card), and Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4, wild card). The Ravens' resurgence from a 1-5 start positions them ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers (56.3% division chance), in a battle that includes two head-to-head matchups.
The NFC projections feature the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2, NFC East with a 7-1 conference record and 12.6% Super Bowl chance), Los Angeles Rams (8-2, NFC West at 70.3% division odds), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4, NFC South at 93.9%), Detroit Lions (6-4, NFC North at 38.7%), Seattle Seahawks (7-3, wild card at 93.2%), San Francisco 49ers (7-4, wild card at 80.4%), and Green Bay Packers (wild card). The Bears, at 7-3 and leading the North, have a 65.1% playoff chance but are edged out by the Packers in simulations due to tougher schedules.
A separate ranking of AFC wild-card contenders places the Bills (projected 12-5) first, followed by Chargers, Chiefs (11-6), Ravens (10-7), Texans (9-8), and Jaguars (10-7). The Steelers lead the North at 6-4, but the race remains fluid with only one projected AFC North playoff spot.