A developing super El Niño in the tropical Pacific has a 90 per cent chance of becoming the strongest in 150 years, according to new forecasts. It is expected to peak at 3.6°C above average sea surface temperatures.
Out of hundreds of simulations by 14 forecast models, 90 per cent show the event surpassing previous records by a wide margin. The previous high of 2.75°C above average came during the 2015-16 El Niño.
Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth said at a media briefing on 23 July that the median model output points to a record broken by 0.8°C. He described the forecast as record-shattering and unprecedented.
Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific already stand at 2.1°C above average, outpacing the 1997-98 El Niño at the same stage. Global temperatures are projected to reach 1.7°C above the pre-industrial average in 2027, exceeding the 2024 record of 1.5°C.
Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth noted that the 20-year temperature average will likely surpass 1.5°C by 2029. The event is also expected to bring heavy rainfall to southern China, drought risks to India and Africa, and coral bleaching worldwide.