A pre-electoral poll by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) places the Partido Popular (PP) at 43.6% vote estimate for the May 17 Andalusian regional elections, 17.8 points ahead of the PSOE. The PP could secure 51 to 59 seats, nearing the absolute majority of 55. Vox remains third with 10.3%.
The CIS, based on 8,017 interviews from April 10 to 18, estimates the PP led by Juanma Moreno would win 51 to 59 seats in the Andalusian Parliament, with 55 as the most likely figure. The PSOE of María Jesús Montero would get 27-34 seats, Vox 8-17, and Adelante Andalucía 5-7. Por Andalucía, a coalition of IU, Podemos, and Sumar, would hover around 4-5 seats.
Compared to the 2022 elections, the PP would go from 58 seats to 51-59; PSOE from 30 to 27-34; Vox from 14 to 8-17. Adelante Andalucía would grow from 2 to 5-7 seats, while Por Andalucía holds similar numbers. Acting president Juanma Moreno rejects pacts with Vox, as reported.
Moreno leads as preferred president with 43.8% support and a rating of 5.78 out of 10. Montero has 20.7% and 3.84; José Ignacio García 6.9%. Healthcare is the top concern for 42.2% of respondents, followed by housing (12%) and unemployment (10.4%). 41.9% approve of the PP's management.
70.4% of Andalusians prioritize regional issues like healthcare or housing when voting, over national matters.
