Building on Dane's initial report of 5.29% annual inflation for February 2026—below January's 5.35% and market expectations around 5.5%—Anif analysis credits a $500-per-gallon gasoline price reduction as the main factor. Without it, inflation would have accelerated to 5.38%. Services and food exerted upward pressure, offset by regulated price relief.
Dane data confirmed Colombia's annual inflation eased to 5.29% in February 2026, with a monthly CPI rise of 1.08%. Anif's report details how regulated items decelerated sharply from 5.5% to 4.0%, contributing -0.78 points to disinflation. The gasoline cut accounted for 7% of monthly inflation relief, averting a +0.08 point impact from fuels and keeping monthly CPI at 1.08% instead of 1.16%.
Offsetting this, services accelerated to 6.45% (2.90 points contribution), food to 5.84% (1.1 points), and goods to 3.0%. Excluding electricity, gas, and fuels, core inflation reached 6.00%, up from January's 5.76%. Electricity prices fell 71.6% to $124/kWh due to better reservoirs (-0.57 points), fuels -0.45 points, and gas benefited from base effects.
Banco de Occidente's David Cubides noted pressures in restaurants/hotels from minimum wage hikes, countered by gasoline cuts in transportation. Anif warns this moderation relies on temporary reliefs, not demand cooling, projecting year-end acceleration to 6% amid persistent risks.
