Hong Kong Q1 2026 GDP hits 5.9%, strongest quarterly growth in nearly 5 years

Hong Kong's economy expanded 5.9% year-on-year in Q1 2026, its fastest quarterly growth in nearly five years and surpassing Financial Secretary Paul Chan's forecast of over 4%. Driven by private consumption and government spending despite Middle East tensions, the advance estimate from the Census and Statistics Department exceeded the 4% rise in Q4 2025. A government spokesman highlighted a positive outlook but noted regional risks.

Hong Kong's economy grew 5.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, confirming Paul Chan's pre-release forecast of exceeding 4% and marking the strongest quarterly performance since the 7.6% expansion in Q2 2021. The Census and Statistics Department issued the advance estimate on May 5.

Key drivers included private consumption and a 2.9% rise in government consumption expenditure, up from 1.5% in Q4 2025, amid Middle East conflicts and higher energy costs.

The government spokesman cited strong global demand for AI-related electronics, sustained visitor arrivals, and robust cross-boundary financial activity as supporting factors. "Relatively solid business and consumer sentiment is expected to continue supporting domestic demand," the spokesman said. "However, persistent tensions in the Middle East pose downside risks."

The results highlight Hong Kong's resilience amid external challenges.

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Seoul skyline billboard announcing 1.7% GDP surge in Q1 2026, with port exports and celebrating executives, illustrating South Korea's economic growth.
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South Korea GDP surges 1.7% in Q1 2026, fastest pace in over 5 years

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South Korea's real GDP jumped 1.7 percent in Q1 2026 from the prior quarter—the strongest growth in 5½ years—despite Middle East tensions, easily topping the Bank of Korea's 0.9 percent forecast on robust exports and steady domestic demand. Part of the rebound following 2025's modest 1% annual expansion (see prior article in series).

Hong Kong's finance chief Paul Chan forecasts first-quarter GDP growth exceeding 4%, the strongest in nearly five years, driven by a 17% rise in visitors and 5.2% gain in retail and catering spending. The preliminary figure is due on Tuesday.

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Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said on Sunday that the city's economy showed resilience in the first quarter of 2026 amid volatility in equity and oil markets caused by war in the Middle East. Investors continued moving assets to the city, drawn by mainland China's steady economic growth and a large number of initial public offerings in Hong Kong. He noted the geopolitical landscape was complex and fast-changing, with uncertainty from the United States-Israel attack on Iran clouding the stock market.

Hong Kong's commercial property market attracted US$1.6 billion in investment in the first quarter, up 41 per cent year-on-year, according to JLL, driven by demand for office, retail and hotel assets. Peer firm CBRE reported HK$12.3 billion (US$1.57 billion), up 105 per cent, amid lower Hibor rates and improving liquidity.

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Sales of luxury homes in Hong Kong surged 156% in the first quarter, driven by stock-market gains and attractive prices, real estate agents say. Mainland Chinese buyers accounted for more than half of the deals. The segment is likely to see another increase in the second quarter.

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