International capital flows to China seeking certainty amid Iranian conflict

Conflict in the Middle East and global turbulence following US-Israeli strikes against Iran have prompted foreign investors to seek certainty in China. Speakers at the China Development Forum highlighted this trend.

At the China Development Forum, Zheng Yongnian from the Chinese University of Hong Kong stated that Middle East conflict and rising global uncertainty are driving capital into China, which offers greater certainty. “Capital needs expectations,” he said. “If people don’t know when the [Iran] war will end and uncertainty continues to mount, while China becomes increasingly certain, capital will naturally flow in.” Zheng pointed to recent visits by European leaders to China as significantly symbolic, urging China to “maintain strategic composure in the face of profound changes.” He also called for China and the United States—described as a “de facto G2”—to deepen dialogue on bilateral relations and broader global affairs. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, told the forum that the country will steadily promote “high-level opening up” of its financial sector, deepening interconnectivity of financial markets and cross-border payment systems to smooth the path for global capital. The article was published on 2026-03-22.

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Illustration of Middle East tensions causing stock market drops, oil price spikes, and investor flight to US dollar.
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Middle East conflict fuels global market volatility and oil price surge

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, have triggered a slide in Asian shares and a surge in oil prices. Investors are turning to the US dollar for safety amid fears of prolonged energy cost increases and inflation. While emerging markets face short-term losses, experts see long-term resilience.

The People’s Bank of China has named continued stability of capital markets a priority for 2026 amid a global sell-off driven by worries over the Iran war. The statement was published on Thursday as the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.39 per cent.

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Prominent investor Wong Kok Hoi stated that US President Donald Trump's push for a weaker dollar, combined with volatility in gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies, is prompting a reassessment of traditional safe havens, positioning China as a potential winner.

China's securities regulator chief Wu Qing pledged on Friday to advance capital market opening to a higher level and reform the STAR Market and ChiNext to better support technological innovation. Representatives from foreign financial institutions noted that since the 2024 nine-point guideline, China's capital market has significantly boosted its appeal to foreign investors. They suggested enhancing policy continuity and aligning with international standards.

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No Japanese business executives will attend the China Development Forum (CDF) in Beijing this week amid ongoing diplomatic friction with China, according to an internal list seen by the South China Morning Post. Nearly 80 top executives from foreign firms, mainly from the US, are set to join the two-day event. Some Middle East CEOs cancelled due to the Iran war disrupting travel.

While the underperformance of Chinese equities in the last financial quarter warrants scrutiny, overall gains are likely to continue in 2026. Most Wall Street banks remain bullish on Chinese stocks, though some have turned more cautious. China's stock market saw a strong rebound in 2025, with Hong Kong emerging as Asia's top fundraising venue.

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Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said on Sunday that the city's economy showed resilience in the first quarter of 2026 amid volatility in equity and oil markets caused by war in the Middle East. Investors continued moving assets to the city, drawn by mainland China's steady economic growth and a large number of initial public offerings in Hong Kong. He noted the geopolitical landscape was complex and fast-changing, with uncertainty from the United States-Israel attack on Iran clouding the stock market.

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