Despite José Antonio Kast's victory in the presidential runoff with a 16-point lead, the Ipsa fell 0.94% to 10,302.23 points, due to profit-taking. The dollar rose $6.65 to $913.40, though the market expects future stock gains and peso appreciation. Experts note the outcome was already priced in by investors.
The Monday following the December 14, 2025, presidential runoff, where José Antonio Kast defeated Jeannette Jara by 16 percentage points, Chilean markets showed a mixed reaction. The Ipsa index, which closed at 10,400 points the previous Friday, opened higher nearing 10,500 points but reversed and ended with a 0.94% drop to 10,302.23 points. This marks the third decline of the benchmark after a presidential election since the return to democracy, akin to the 0.38% fall in 2006 after Michelle Bachelet's win and the 6.18% drop in 2021 following Gabriel Boric's victory.
Guillermo Araya, head of studies at Renta4, attributed the move to the fact that “for some, the triumph was already internalized,” calling it profit-taking. Araya sticks to a year-end forecast of 10,600 points, driven by a potential 25 basis-point cut in the Central Bank's policy rate. Jorge Tolosa, equity operator at Vector Capital, noted that after the first round the stock market rose over 5% and the dollar fell 1.5%, invoking the adage “buy the rumor, sell the news” for short-term investors.
Despite the correction, the outlook remains positive. Credicorp projects the Ipsa could reach 11,200 to 11,600 points by end-2026 in favorable scenarios, depending on Kast's cabinet composition and centroderecha coalition unity. Ariel Nachari, strategist at SURA Investments, highlights focus on economic measures like cutting the corporate tax from 27% to 23%, trimming public spending by US$6,000 million over 18 months, and streamlining investment permits. Julius Baer maintains an overweight recommendation on Chilean stocks, citing an attractive risk premium and limited exposure to global tensions.
Kathrin Muehlbronner from Moody’s Ratings stated that Kast's election “will likely increase focus on deregulation and strengthening conditions for local and foreign investment, supporting Chile's economic growth prospects”.
In the currency market, the dollar opened near $903, a low not seen since September 2024, but rose 0.73% to $913.40. Ignacio Mieres from XTB Latam explained that “the scenario of a Kast triumph was already discounted.” Thomas Naeter from Capitaria sees a downward bias for the dollar, forecasting $890 by March, supported by strong copper at US$5.35 —the second-highest historical level— and a 0.14% drop in the Dollar Index. The peso has appreciated 1.65% in December and over 8% in 2025.
