Foreign investors injected R$ 12.35 billion into the B3 until January 21, 2026, nearly half of 2025's total, driven by geopolitical disorder from Donald Trump. This weakened the dollar to R$ 5.287 and pushed the Ibovespa to a record 178,858 points. Analysts attribute the shift to global asset diversification amid US tariffs and tensions.
The start of 2026 has been marked by a massive influx of foreign capital into the Brazilian market, reflecting uncertainties from Donald Trump's policies in the United States. Until January 21, non-residents invested R$ 12.35 billion in the B3, a figure equal to 46% of 2025's total balance of R$ 26.87 billion. This inflow propelled the Ibovespa to a nominal record of 178,858 points, with a rise of over 9% in the month, outperforming indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and emerging markets.
The dollar's depreciation, which fell 3.7% against the real this year and reached R$ 5.287 on January 23, accompanies a 0.7% loss in the DXY index against global currencies. Analysts point to investment diversification away from the US, accelerated by tariffs imposed by Trump in April 2025, dubbed 'Liberation Day', and recent tensions, such as threats to European allies, interest in Greenland, and belligerent stances toward Venezuela, Iran, and Colombia.
"It's a movement out of the US economy seeking assets in other countries," explains Henrique Aguiar, director at Nova Futura Private. He highlights fears of asset freezes, similar to those with Russia in Ukraine, and Brazil's attractions, like a P/L multiple between 10 and 11, below the historical average of 12 to 14. Roberto Padovani, chief economist at BV bank, adds: "The environment is one of great uncertainty," citing instability in US markets.
In Latin America, Brazil trails Peru, Colombia, and Chile in returns, with Peru's index up 20% in dollars. Gold hit a record of US$ 4,979.70 per ounce, reflecting a search for safe havens. High Brazilian interest rates, with the Selic at 15% and inflation near 4%, offer real gains above 10%, attracting more flows. However, analysts warn of risks like public accounts and elections in the country.
