Colombian peso extends lead in emerging currency revaluation through late January 2026

Building on its 3.8% gain in the first 14 days of January, the Colombian peso has appreciated further by 4.5% over the first 22 days, maintaining its top position among emerging currencies. New international factors like Donald Trump's Greenland comments and a national pension decree bolster the trend, with the Chilean peso (3.8%) and Russian ruble (3.79%) trailing.

The Colombian peso's strong performance in early 2026 continues, now showing a 4.5% revaluation over the first 22 days of January, ahead of other emerging currencies. Updated rankings place the Chilean peso at 3.8%, Russian ruble at 3.79%, Brazilian real at 3.39%, Mexican peso at 2.9%, and South African rand at 2.7%. This reflects sustained investor appetite, capital inflows, and positive monetary policy outlooks, building on earlier drivers like government external debt issuance and favorable U.S. inflation data.

Conversely, the Indian rupee (-1.8%) and South Korean won (-1.7%) have depreciated most. On January 22, the dollar closed at $3,630.89 (down from TRM of $3,669.15), with a daily low of $3,590.10, high of $3,667, across 1,702 transactions totaling US$1.531 million.

Globally, Andrés Langebaek, former Anif vice president, links this to the dollar's weakening amid U.S. policy uncertainty. He cites Trump's Davos speech ruling out force for Greenland acquisition—after prior tariff threats against non-supporting European nations—as eroding dollar credibility. A subsequent framework agreement further calmed markets.

Domestically, a government decree proposes cutting pension funds' foreign investments from 50% to 30% over 3-5 years. Porvenir president Miguel Largacha Martínez emphasized the gradual rollout to avoid shocks: "It's impossible to repatriate abruptly... this is over five years." Langebaek noted the scale ($100 trillion) creates expectations of future dollar inflows to Colombia.

These factors sustain a favorable outlook for the peso amid lingering global risks.

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Trading floor scene illustrating Colombian peso's 1.36% drop amid regional currency gains and January volatility.
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Colombian peso decouples from peers amid January volatility

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Continuing its strong revaluation trend earlier in January—where it led emerging currencies with gains over 4% through January 22—the Colombian peso depreciated 1.36% on January 28, 2026, diverging from appreciating regional peers like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso. Despite the daily drop, it holds a 3.5% monthly gain amid global volatility and commodity rebounds.

Building on its strong 2025 performance as the fourth strongest emerging currency, the Colombian peso has appreciated 3.8% in the first 14 days of January 2026, leading the pack. It outperforms the Chilean peso (2.8%) and Argentine peso (1%), driven by government external debt issuance and favorable US inflation data.

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The Colombian peso appreciated 18.3% against the dollar in 2025, ranking as the fourth strongest emerging currency of the year. This strength was driven by a globally weakened dollar and local factors like remittances and exports. The exchange rate dropped from a high of $4,416.69 in April to a low of $3,706.94 in December.

Despite the Candlemas Day holiday, the Mexican peso gained ground against the dollar in electronic trading, appreciating by 0.32 percent. The exchange rate stood at 17.40 units per dollar, two cents lower than the Bank of Mexico's close from the previous Friday. Analysts warn of a potential correction due to the peso's overbought status in January.

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The Mexican peso closed the trading day on Friday, February 6, with a 0.85% appreciation, settling at 17.2592 pesos per dollar, driven by global USD weakness and Banxico's decision to keep its rate at 7%. Analysts note this strength could hold in the 17.00-18.00 pesos range through the first quarter.

Foreign investors injected R$ 12.35 billion into the B3 until January 21, 2026, nearly half of 2025's total, driven by geopolitical disorder from Donald Trump. This weakened the dollar to R$ 5.287 and pushed the Ibovespa to a record 178,858 points. Analysts attribute the shift to global asset diversification amid US tariffs and tensions.

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The rupiah exchange rate weakened toward Rp 17,000 per US dollar on January 21, 2026, driven by global and domestic pressures. Economist Josua Pardede stressed the need for fiscal policy certainty to restore market confidence. Meanwhile, the IHSG opened lower amid rising external risks.

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