Mexican peso closes stronger amid Middle East de-escalation

The Mexican peso ended the session up 0.15% against the dollar at 17.76 pesos per unit, per Banco de México data. Traders assessed the feasibility of a ceasefire in Iran ahead of Banxico's monetary policy decision on Thursday. Analysts forecast the currency to hold in a 17.65-17.85 pesos per dollar range.

The Mexican peso posted gains at the March 25 session close, appreciating 0.15% or 2.63 centavos to 17.76 pesos per dollar, according to Banco de México (Banxico) figures. Traders weighed U.S. negotiations for an end to the war in Iran while awaiting the central bank's monetary policy decision the next day. In bank windows like Banamex, the dollar traded at 18.20 pesos per greenback. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.20% to 99.64 points, and Bloomberg's (BBDXY) gained 0.16% to 1,211.27 units. Ten-year bond yields stood at 4.33% for the U.S. and 9.45% for Mexico. Felipe Mendoza, markets analyst at EBC Financial Group, stated: “For the coming days, I expect the Mexican peso to hold in a 17.65 to 17.85 range. The ceiling will be capped by weak January growth data, while support comes from Middle East geopolitical de-escalation. If ceasefire details firm up, the peso could test 17.60.” Among emerging currencies, the Czech koruna and Polish zloty fell up to 0.54%.

Makala yanayohusiana

Illustration depicting the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady while signaling a possible hike amid inflation.
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Fed holds rates steady but signals possible hike amid inflation

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The US Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range during its first decision under President Kevin Warsh.

The Mexican peso strengthened against the US dollar on April 20, trading at 17.30 pesos per dollar according to Banco de México, due to a slight weakening of the greenback tied to geopolitical disagreements with Iran. Experts indicate the peso's outlook will be shaped by geopolitics and key economic data. The exchange rate in bank windows reached 17.76 pesos.

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The Mexican peso closed the Friday session with gains against the dollar. The move came amid greater risk appetite in international markets due to expectations of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran.

The US dollar ended the session at 3,644.61, down 22.45 from the prior TRM. The move aligns with crude prices rising over 2% after US attacks on Iran.

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Wall Street and Mexico's BMV stock markets closed sharply higher on Wednesday, reacting to Tuesday's post-market announcement of a two-week truce between the US and Iran—including negotiations and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—following President Trump's ultimatum. The Dow Jones surged 2.85%, while the BMV's IPC climbed 2.47%. The Mexican peso strengthened up to 1.9% against the dollar.

The US currency closed lower on Monday in Chile after two sessions of sharp gains. The exchange rate reached $916.50 amid anticipation for the US inflation data.

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Wall Street posted losses on May 19 as a lack of clarity in geopolitical agreements revived fears of a longer Middle East conflict.

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