The Mexican peso started the week with a slight depreciation against the dollar, closing at 17.1588 pesos per dollar on February 16, 2026, due to low liquidity levels from the U.S. holiday. This 0.08 percent drop occurred amid closed U.S. stock markets for Presidents' Day. Analysts indicate there is still room for the exchange rate to fall further, though the market takes profits near 17.11 pesos.
On February 16, 2026, the Mexican peso closed with a 0.08 percent depreciation or 1.45 centavos against the U.S. dollar, settling at 17.1588 pesos per dollar, according to Banco de México (Banxico) data. This change is attributed to an environment of low liquidity, caused by the absence of U.S. stock market operations due to the Presidents' Day holiday.
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, stated: “Oscillation indicators show there is still room for the exchange rate to continue falling. However, it is evident that as it approaches 17.11 pesos per dollar, the market takes the opportunity to take profits and buy currency hedges”.
In bank windows, the dollar sold for 17.59 pesos, according to Banamex. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.15 percent to 97.06 points, while the Bloomberg dollar index (BBDXY) increased 0.14 percent to 1,183 points. The yield on the U.S. 10-year bond was 4.03 percent, compared to 8.74 percent for the Mexican 10-year bond.
Other emerging currencies also posted losses: the Colombian peso fell 0.33 percent, the Chilean peso 0.23 percent, the South African rand 0.19 percent, the Romanian leu 0.18 percent, the Czech koruna 0.17 percent, and the Polish zloty 0.14 percent.
In a broader context, historical forecasts have failed to predict peso depreciations that did not occur. For 2026, Banxico's survey expects a close at 18.50 pesos, but factors like dollar weakness from low U.S. inflation (2.4 percent annual in January) and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could support the peso's strength. Risks include tensions in the T-MEC under the Trump administration, though internal U.S. resistances limit extreme scenarios.
