Study warns humanity has exceeded earth's sustainable limits

A new study concludes that the global population of 8.3 billion already exceeds what Earth can sustainably support. Researchers analyzed more than 200 years of data and found that resource use has pushed the planet beyond its carrying capacity since the mid twentieth century.

The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, was led by Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University. It shows that population growth shifted into a negative demographic phase in the early 1960s, with the total expected to peak between 11.7 billion and 12.4 billion by the late 2060s or 2070s under current trends.

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Today, April 4, marks Sweden's Overshoot Day, when the annual ration of renewable resources is exhausted if everyone on Earth lived like Swedes. Global Footprint Network calculations show that Swedish lifestyles would require resources from four Earths each year. The pattern holds in other high-income countries.

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A new analysis in Geophysical Research Letters shows Earth warming at ~0.36°C per decade since 2014—about double the prior rate of 0.18°C per decade—with 98% confidence after accounting for natural factors. Led by Stefan Rahmstorf, the study warns the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit could be breached by 2028, amid debates over short-term trends and data uncertainties.

The Circularity Gap Report 2024 reveals that the global economy's circularity has declined to 7.2 percent, down from 9.1 percent in 2018. This means less than 8 percent of consumed materials like steel, plastic, and food come from recycled or reused sources. The report, published by Circle Economy with Deloitte, highlights the persistence of the linear take-make-dispose model amid rising sustainability discussions.

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A recent episode of the Sustainability in Your Ear podcast features ecological engineer Nadina Galle discussing her book on integrating nature and technology in cities.

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