Cathie Wood sees Bitcoin's four-year cycle fading

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is breaking down due to growing institutional involvement. She highlighted how this adoption is altering market volatility and the extent of potential future declines. Wood shared these views during an interview on Fox Business.

Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, has suggested that the cryptocurrency Bitcoin is undergoing a significant shift in its market dynamics. In a recent appearance on Fox Business, she stated that the asset's well-established four-year cycle, which has historically influenced price patterns tied to halving events, may no longer dictate its long-term trajectory.

Wood attributes this change primarily to increasing institutional adoption. She explained that as more institutions enter the Bitcoin market, they are stabilizing the asset in ways that differ from past retail-driven behaviors. This involvement, according to Wood, is reducing overall volatility compared to previous cycles.

Furthermore, she pointed out that institutional participation could limit the depth of future drawdowns, or price drops, making the market more resilient. While Bitcoin has experienced sharp corrections in the past, Wood's perspective indicates a maturing ecosystem where professional investors play a larger role in steadying fluctuations.

This commentary comes amid ongoing discussions about Bitcoin's evolution, with Wood emphasizing the transformative impact of institutional money. Her insights reflect broader trends in cryptocurrency as it gains legitimacy among traditional finance players.

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Dramatic scene of Bitcoin's bear market crash on trading floor screens amid US-China trade war fears, with plummeting charts and panicked investors.
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Bitcoin crashes amid trade war renewal and market fears

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Bitcoin has entered a bear market, dropping over 30% from its early October peak of around $126,000, following a flash crash triggered by President Trump's renewed trade war with China. The cryptocurrency wiped out $1 trillion in value over six weeks, with a single-day loss of $19 billion on October 10 due to panic selling and liquidations. While recovering slightly to about $88,000 on Monday, concerns over Federal Reserve rate decisions and leveraged positions continue to unsettle investors.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has boosted its holdings in crypto-related companies as prices decline across the sector. On Friday, the firm purchased shares in Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish, signaling continued institutional interest. This move comes alongside announcements from major players like UBS and PwC affirming crypto's growing legitimacy.

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Building on recent debates about crypto's maturing cycles, analysts highlight three major factors—led by institutional adoption—that are expected to drive Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices throughout 2026, potentially replacing traditional halving-driven patterns.

Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, states that crypto companies will remain linked to bitcoin's price for another three to four years. He highlights how revenue in asset management, staking, and trading directly correlates with digital asset values. Despite this dependence, Novogratz sees potential for diversification through infrastructure like data centers.

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Bitcoin has declined sharply from its recent peak, dropping roughly 26% over the past three months. Despite this downturn, fresh data indicates it has held up better than nearly every other part of the cryptocurrency market. This performance highlights shifts in capital behavior during the latest market slump.

Following silver's recent record high near $83 and prior sharp correction from $82, Garret Bullish—the White House whale—predicts precious metals have topped, with capital now flowing into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Backed by his $10 billion portfolio's long positions and recent market data, this view emerges as Bitcoin nears $90,000 amid ETF inflows.

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Bitcoin is navigating a precarious market range marked by high unrealized losses and profit-taking from long-term holders. The cryptocurrency faces ongoing pressure despite holding steady for the moment. Analysts note a lack of market conviction in the current environment.

 

 

 

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