China's early 2026 economic data beats forecasts

China's first batch of hard economic activity data for 2026 exceeded downbeat forecasts, reports Seeking Alpha. Analysts note more work is required to support domestic growth amid rising inflation risks.

China released its initial hard economic activity figures for 2026, surpassing the rather downbeat expectations, according to a Seeking Alpha analysis by Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China. The data provides some relief after a period of soft domestic demand, partly driven by a protracted downturn in the property sector. Property prices continued to decline, though at a slower pace than before, highlighting ongoing challenges in this key area of the economy. Song emphasizes that further efforts are needed to bolster the domestic economy and meet this year's growth targets, especially with inflation risks picking up. Attention now turns to upcoming policy measures in China and their adequacy in achieving these goals. For the time being, the firm holds its forecast of 4.6% year-over-year GDP growth for 2026.

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Realistic illustration of China's 2026 Two Sessions press conference highlighting GDP growth targets and leaders including Premier Li Qiang and Xi Jinping.
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Economy press conference highlights from China's 2026 Two Sessions

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Following Premier Li Qiang's government work report setting a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5%, Zheng Shanjie of the National Development and Reform Commission projected over 6 trillion yuan GDP growth this year at the NPC economy press conference. The service sector is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Leaders including Xi Jinping emphasized high-quality development amid the sessions.

China has set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5 to 5 percent, striving for better results, as announced in a government work report submitted to the National People's Congress on March 6, 2026—confirming earlier January reports of this range.

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China's foreign trade rose 18.3 percent year-on-year to 7.73 trillion yuan in the first two months of 2026, economists say this will underpin the country's growth target and provide stability for the global economy. Exports increased 19.2 percent, while imports grew 17.1 percent, reflecting improved global demand and domestic industrial strengths.

China's state-run Economic Daily has published back-to-back front-page editorials rejecting claims that its economy is losing steam and causing a global 'China shock 2.0'. The outlet argues that rising protectionism, not China's strong exports, is the real global economic problem. It describes the 4.5 to 5 per cent growth target as a 'reasonable range'.

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Following late-2025 reports of economic promise and investor optimism based on preliminary data, South Africa's gross domestic product expanded by just 1.1% for the full year of 2025—up from 0.5% in 2024 but below the Treasury's 1.4% estimate. Quarterly growth hit 0.4% in Q4 after a revised 0.3% in Q3. Industrial sectors like mining and manufacturing contracted, offset by gains in finance and investment.

China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell slightly to 50.3 in April from 50.4 the previous month, though it exceeded expectations. New export orders and imports expanded for the first time since early 2024, but softer domestic activity pushed the non-manufacturing PMI into contraction. Price pressures remained in expansionary territory, indicating ongoing reflation.

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