Data ekonomi awal 2026 China melebihi perkiraan

Sekumpulan data aktivitas ekonomi keras pertama China untuk 2026 melampaui perkiraan pesimis, lapor Seeking Alpha. Analis mencatat bahwa lebih banyak pekerjaan diperlukan untuk mendukung pertumbuhan domestik di tengah risiko inflasi yang meningkat.

China merilis angka aktivitas ekonomi keras awalnya untuk 2026, yang melampaui ekspektasi yang cukup suram, menurut analisis Seeking Alpha oleh Lynn Song, Chief Economist, Greater China. Data tersebut memberikan sedikit kelegaan setelah periode permintaan domestik yang lemah, yang sebagian didorong oleh penurunan berkepanjangan di sektor properti. Harga properti terus menurun, meskipun dengan laju yang lebih lambat daripada sebelumnya, menyoroti tantangan berkelanjutan di bidang kunci ekonomi ini. Song menekankan bahwa diperlukan upaya lebih lanjut untuk memperkuat ekonomi domestik dan mencapai target pertumbuhan tahun ini, terutama dengan risiko inflasi yang mulai meningkat. Kini perhatian beralih ke langkah-langkah kebijakan mendatang di China dan kecukupannya dalam mencapai tujuan-tujuan tersebut. Untuk saat ini, perusahaan mempertahankan perkiraannya pertumbuhan GDP year-over-year sebesar 4,6% untuk 2026.

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Realistic illustration of China's 2026 Two Sessions press conference highlighting GDP growth targets and leaders including Premier Li Qiang and Xi Jinping.
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Economy press conference highlights from China's 2026 Two Sessions

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Following Premier Li Qiang's government work report setting a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5%, Zheng Shanjie of the National Development and Reform Commission projected over 6 trillion yuan GDP growth this year at the NPC economy press conference. The service sector is expected to exceed 100 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). Leaders including Xi Jinping emphasized high-quality development amid the sessions.

China has set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5 to 5 percent, striving for better results, as announced in a government work report submitted to the National People's Congress on March 6, 2026—confirming earlier January reports of this range.

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China's foreign trade rose 18.3 percent year-on-year to 7.73 trillion yuan in the first two months of 2026, economists say this will underpin the country's growth target and provide stability for the global economy. Exports increased 19.2 percent, while imports grew 17.1 percent, reflecting improved global demand and domestic industrial strengths.

China's manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong has lowered its 2026 GDP growth target to 4.5%-5% after missing the previous year's goal. Governor Meng Fanli announced this during the opening of the Guangdong provincial people’s congress. The adjustment signals challenges from the property sector drag and global headwinds.

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China's consumer price index rose 0.8 percent in the first two months of 2026, driven by a surge in spending during an extended Chinese New Year holiday. However, analysts remain concerned about long-term deflation risks.

Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows China's GDP grew 5 percent year-on-year in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan and surpassing the 140 trillion yuan threshold for the first time. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP fell 5 percent, while air quality continued to improve.

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While the underperformance of Chinese equities in the last financial quarter warrants scrutiny, overall gains are likely to continue in 2026. Most Wall Street banks remain bullish on Chinese stocks, though some have turned more cautious. China's stock market saw a strong rebound in 2025, with Hong Kong emerging as Asia's top fundraising venue.

 

 

 

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